{ "ticker": { "uuid": "276a829c-144b-4869-bfaf-a7388f0bfe39", "symbol": "PTON", "name": "Peloton Interactive, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.439, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.163, "architecture_energy": 46.699, "architecture_maturity": 10.809, "architecture_confidence": 75.244, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.71, "rotation_up": 59.34, "upward_expansion": 82.49, "deceleration": 54.41, "rotation_down": 22.68, "downward_expansion": 9.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.820001, 104.297273, 101.163381, 95.992624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 94.760002, "trend_reference": 91.359334, "distance_from_trend": 0.037223, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 109.16468, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131954, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.491977, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.230649, "excess_performance": 0.285316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131954, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156832, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.230649, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.779802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1886, "relative_activity": 0.367169, "balance": 1.779802, "dry_up": 0.141728, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082955, "annualized_volatility": 0.528189, "from_high_reference": -0.422195, "from_low_reference": 0.457846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.359334, "fair_value_reference": 109.16468, "structural_low": 65.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.067114, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052635, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.859375, "worst_return": -0.21444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.271778, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.302756, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.292961, "worst_return": -0.563352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.518121, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.53848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.610306, "worst_return": -0.539546, 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26.379781, "activity_lines": [ 99.183333, 99.503817, 93.906333, 91.452172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 103.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7124.35, "trend": 92.299, "fair_value": 110.111026, "relative_strength": -10.707278, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.765638, "energy": 35.669066, "activity_lines": [ 100.765333, 100.414363, 95.431428, 92.133957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 106.0, "volume": 527, "typical_volume": 6875.05, "trend": 92.086667, "fair_value": 109.80718, "relative_strength": -8.227574, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.281757, "energy": 66.965029, "activity_lines": [ 103.085333, 101.679454, 97.052952, 93.017892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.0, "volume": 382, "typical_volume": 5757.95, "trend": 92.234334, "fair_value": 109.614872, "relative_strength": -0.474417, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.767493, "energy": 84.952495, "activity_lines": [ 107.326, 104.087818, 99.25619, 94.431656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.0, "volume": 117, "typical_volume": 5733.15, "trend": 92.330667, "fair_value": 109.403334, "relative_strength": -0.751596, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.263418, "energy": 88.135836, "activity_lines": [ 110.3, 106.078, 101.239428, 95.835892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.760002, "volume": 1886, "typical_volume": 5136.6, "trend": 91.359334, "fair_value": 109.16468, "relative_strength": -16.491977, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.163342, "energy": 46.699255, "activity_lines": [ 105.820001, 104.297273, 101.163381, 95.992624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }