{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27751cb5-5192-4ef9-a2f9-1be52a4412b5", "symbol": "DDL", "name": "Dingdong (Cayman) Limited ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.218, "architecture_energy": 25.465, "architecture_maturity": 77.829, "architecture_confidence": 70.411, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.21, "rotation_up": 39.41, "upward_expansion": 20.58, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 20.95, "downward_expansion": 54.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.382667, 2.274545, 2.336857, 2.410452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.3, "trend_reference": 2.514667, "distance_from_trend": -0.085366, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.325769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01108, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.713389, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160584, "excess_performance": -0.286209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01108, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113343, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160584, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.663693, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1409176, "relative_activity": 0.666735, "balance": 0.663693, "dry_up": 0.844772, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099161, "annualized_volatility": 0.418209, "from_high_reference": -0.325513, "from_low_reference": 0.393939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.514667, "fair_value_reference": 2.325769, "structural_low": 1.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.035076, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.042299, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.785124, "worst_return": -0.288991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.153191, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.145413, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.674419, "worst_return": -0.351759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.096076, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.290316, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.236453, "worst_return": -0.400602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05102, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255814, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.451737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187675, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.090986, "energy": 21.856937, "activity_lines": [ 2.373333, 2.269091, 2.348048, 2.425742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.3, "volume": 1409176, "typical_volume": 2113547.1, "trend": 2.514667, "fair_value": 2.325769, "relative_strength": -12.713389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.217817, "energy": 25.464929, "activity_lines": [ 2.382667, 2.274545, 2.336857, 2.410452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }