{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27893410-0aeb-4bb3-a5f0-0b4b0d9ce53d", "symbol": "6002", "name": "Herfy Food Services Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.995, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.74, "architecture_energy": 37.934, "architecture_maturity": 6.135, "architecture_confidence": 89.549, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.16, "rotation_up": 16.5, "upward_expansion": 7.9, "deceleration": 42.34, "rotation_down": 57.18, "downward_expansion": 78.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.145333, 14.287636, 14.582952, 14.639247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.82, "trend_reference": 14.845, "distance_from_trend": -0.001684, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.278205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.389576, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.483429, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.030739, "excess_performance": 0.00109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001684, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.389576, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018848, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077559, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.80913, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1611611, "relative_activity": 2.236067, "balance": 0.80913, "dry_up": 0.958109, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059587, "annualized_volatility": 0.251359, "from_high_reference": -0.387603, "from_low_reference": 0.148837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.845, "fair_value_reference": 24.278205, "structural_low": 12.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.019264, "positive_rate": 0.435897, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.014346, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.18616, "worst_return": -0.173333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.072006, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.041648, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.127119, "worst_return": -0.239234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.126055, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.108574, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.067797, "worst_return": -0.317431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.984249, "energy": 40.694439, "activity_lines": [ 14.524, 14.786182, 14.835286, 14.859054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.94, "volume": 394214, "typical_volume": 676950.25, "trend": 14.923333, "fair_value": 24.739359, "relative_strength": -17.849063, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.55289, "energy": 59.364914, "activity_lines": [ 14.3, 14.603091, 14.762429, 14.793226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.75, "volume": 364918, "typical_volume": 662371.3, "trend": 14.885667, "fair_value": 24.580064, "relative_strength": -18.495574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.352508, "energy": 64.761771, "activity_lines": [ 14.075333, 14.412727, 14.670571, 14.717527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.69, "volume": 391425, "typical_volume": 650058.3, "trend": 14.837667, "fair_value": 24.426474, "relative_strength": -16.182416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.558603, "energy": 67.793005, "activity_lines": [ 13.902, 14.235636, 14.572619, 14.640387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.82, "volume": 1611611, "typical_volume": 720734.6, "trend": 14.845, "fair_value": 24.278205, "relative_strength": -10.483429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.739775, "energy": 37.933789, "activity_lines": [ 14.145333, 14.287636, 14.582952, 14.639247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }