{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27897e98-733f-48d8-ba41-c08aa63d5a1c", "symbol": "600523", "name": "Guizhou Guihang Automotive Components Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.356, "architecture_energy": 41.154, "architecture_maturity": 93.761, "architecture_confidence": 60.216, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.64, "rotation_up": 27.17, "upward_expansion": 18.62, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 38.36, "downward_expansion": 66.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.303333, 11.259091, 11.754403, 12.364288 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.28, "trend_reference": 13.250353, "distance_from_trend": -0.148702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.662268, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.109164, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.269418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.22193, "excess_performance": -0.178726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076496, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.109164, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048111, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.826737, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19081732, "relative_activity": 1.122582, "balance": 0.826737, "dry_up": 1.376972, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065803, "annualized_volatility": 0.238333, "from_high_reference": -0.340596, "from_low_reference": 0.081496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.250353, "fair_value_reference": 12.662268, "structural_low": 10.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.015838, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.320202, "worst_return": -0.120308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.027827, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.002429, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.320154, "worst_return": -0.194774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079442, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.061577, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.291225, "worst_return": -0.322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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18631945.55, "trend": 13.652208, "fair_value": 12.712071, "relative_strength": -13.369303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.973111, "energy": 60.335978, "activity_lines": [ 11.317333, 11.406011, 12.152231, 12.809058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.13, "volume": 26702044, "typical_volume": 17973021.85, "trend": 13.519867, "fair_value": 12.693754, "relative_strength": -17.890331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.65942, "energy": 53.860576, "activity_lines": [ 11.294667, 11.305983, 11.993257, 12.646335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.26, "volume": 19099202, "typical_volume": 17539120.2, "trend": 13.391859, "fair_value": 12.677699, "relative_strength": -16.727376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.910029, "energy": 44.48577, "activity_lines": [ 11.319333, 11.267818, 11.865287, 12.500537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.28, "volume": 19081732, "typical_volume": 16998068.15, "trend": 13.250353, "fair_value": 12.662268, "relative_strength": -18.269418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.355843, "energy": 41.154312, "activity_lines": [ 11.303333, 11.259091, 11.754403, 12.364288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }