{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2794f69e-83bb-4573-8a59-14169de84b55", "symbol": "GAPW-B", "name": "Gapwaves AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.167, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.591, "architecture_energy": 28.889, "architecture_maturity": 60.514, "architecture_confidence": 62.474, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.55, "rotation_up": 16.83, "upward_expansion": 17.21, "deceleration": 69.82, "rotation_down": 64.83, "downward_expansion": 42.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.672, 14.945455, 14.963524, 14.29157 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.7, "trend_reference": 13.678, "distance_from_trend": -0.071502, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.351218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223299, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.274755, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024194, "excess_performance": -0.037301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071502, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223299, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107203, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042363, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024194, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.903629, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178967, "relative_activity": 0.615803, "balance": 1.903629, "dry_up": 0.85171, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192671, "annualized_volatility": 0.799258, "from_high_reference": -0.592949, "from_low_reference": 0.29065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.678, "fair_value_reference": 16.351218, "structural_low": 9.84, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.121154, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.094149, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.011111, "worst_return": -0.187592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022329, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.00505, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.223043, "worst_return": -0.443237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.158249, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.185375, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.350852, "worst_return": -0.319055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.189456, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.178316, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026989, "worst_return": -0.405901, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.257336, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089482, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005682, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.150368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007407, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078144, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.200273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079046, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230601, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063422, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.25, "volume": 38474, "typical_volume": 52886.5, "trend": 25.588333, "fair_value": 41.879808, "relative_strength": -21.002385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"direction": 39.717782, "energy": 29.23821, "activity_lines": [ 16.342667, 16.472364, 15.137048, 14.360602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.08, "volume": 176900, "typical_volume": 293810.35, "trend": 13.810667, "fair_value": 16.471667, "relative_strength": -20.611378, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.190906, "energy": 17.522294, "activity_lines": [ 15.433333, 16.055273, 15.147333, 14.376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.56, "volume": 91621, "typical_volume": 290872.15, "trend": 13.758, "fair_value": 16.414038, "relative_strength": -23.776292, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.599087, "energy": 19.592152, "activity_lines": [ 14.574667, 15.560364, 15.102, 14.359828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.7, "volume": 178967, "typical_volume": 290623.9, "trend": 13.678, "fair_value": 16.351218, "relative_strength": -29.274755, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.591414, "energy": 28.888877, "activity_lines": [ 13.672, 14.945455, 14.963524, 14.29157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }