{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27963fd2-151d-4906-b7d7-f8d066c728c4", "symbol": "IDVY", "name": "iShares Euro Dividend UCITS ETF EUR Dist", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.376, "architecture_energy": 96.868, "architecture_maturity": 40.651, "architecture_confidence": 71.376, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 89.51, "upward_expansion": 99.99, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.31, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.680333, 24.208717, 23.612178, 23.195695 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 25.209999, "trend_reference": 22.749792, "distance_from_trend": 0.108142, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.202058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385008, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.017792, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.121931, "excess_performance": 0.039048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108142, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034174, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100338, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030178, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009508, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121931, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 49.757074, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12469, "relative_activity": 1.5059, "balance": 49.757074, "dry_up": 1.333196, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017794, "annualized_volatility": 0.144752, "from_high_reference": -0.003951, "from_low_reference": 0.241096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.749792, "fair_value_reference": 18.202058, "structural_low": 20.485001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.015737, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": 0.013223, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.116147, "worst_return": -0.090779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003176, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.015486, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.142703, "worst_return": -0.070252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069313, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017532, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.245453, "worst_return": -0.209553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 17.941676, "relative_strength": -1.49499, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.91678, "energy": 77.917955, "activity_lines": [ 23.486167, 23.276255, 22.883047, 22.655532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.08, "volume": 11180, "typical_volume": 8298.85, "trend": 22.484389, "fair_value": 18.002688, "relative_strength": -0.249451, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.358084, "energy": 80.99401, "activity_lines": [ 23.694667, 23.46071, 23.029934, 22.76302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.405001, "volume": 8360, "typical_volume": 8220.1, "trend": 22.565675, "fair_value": 18.065638, "relative_strength": 1.222259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.98093, "energy": 92.630131, "activity_lines": [ 23.959, 23.673748, 23.200463, 22.88693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.795, "volume": 12147, "typical_volume": 8065.55, "trend": 22.653477, "fair_value": 18.132799, "relative_strength": 2.691085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.915288, "energy": 94.716762, "activity_lines": [ 24.308334, 23.921898, 23.394837, 23.030758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.209999, "volume": 12469, "typical_volume": 8280.1, "trend": 22.749792, "fair_value": 18.202058, "relative_strength": 3.017792, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.375947, "energy": 96.867578, "activity_lines": [ 24.680333, 24.208717, 23.612178, 23.195695 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }