{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27998213-2b1b-4573-88e8-d08b5e9b76af", "symbol": "ALINN", "name": "Innelec Multim\u00e9dia SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.715, "architecture_energy": 16.323, "architecture_maturity": 33.88, "architecture_confidence": 78.983, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.7, "rotation_up": 26.11, "upward_expansion": 54.04, "deceleration": 88.2, "rotation_down": 24.66, "downward_expansion": 17.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.853333, 2.905091, 2.814429, 2.734667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.87, "trend_reference": 2.723333, "distance_from_trend": 0.053856, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.268334, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.327606, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.390535, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07717, "excess_performance": -0.130482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053856, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015781, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.327606, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205117, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.236001, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.401558, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14825, "relative_activity": 1.507035, "balance": 3.401558, "dry_up": 0.95886, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119807, "annualized_volatility": 0.718602, "from_high_reference": -0.258398, "from_low_reference": 0.514512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.723333, "fair_value_reference": 4.268334, "structural_low": 1.895, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021185, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030566, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067164, "worst_return": -0.071942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.083616, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.029803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089286, "worst_return": -0.046931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.054545, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.130627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101083, "worst_return": -0.150974, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117438, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091413, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.132911, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195251, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021352, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.993769, "volume": 5622, "typical_volume": 8188.55, "trend": 5.286812, "fair_value": 5.315668, "relative_strength": 13.397534, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": 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2.75, "volume": 6833, "typical_volume": 9654.2, "trend": 2.728, "fair_value": 4.288949, "relative_strength": -11.706083, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.111035, "energy": 8.665831, "activity_lines": [ 2.856667, 2.928, 2.790714, 2.725505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.87, "volume": 14825, "typical_volume": 9837.2, "trend": 2.723333, "fair_value": 4.268334, "relative_strength": -9.390535, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.71468, "energy": 16.322534, "activity_lines": [ 2.853333, 2.905091, 2.814429, 2.734667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }