{ "ticker": { "uuid": "279b3c0e-8298-4ef5-8465-409fd690691d", "symbol": "MORT", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK MORTGAGE REIT INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.824, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.631, "architecture_energy": 19.705, "architecture_maturity": 38.122, "architecture_confidence": 71.261, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.85, "rotation_up": 24.86, "upward_expansion": 8.29, "deceleration": 54.69, "rotation_down": 35.3, "downward_expansion": 65.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.820667, 9.830171, 9.848647, 9.903862 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.89, "trend_reference": 10.04357, "distance_from_trend": -0.01529, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.302156, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063194, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.050934, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05005, "excess_performance": -0.175675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01529, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009556, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063194, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05005, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.415815, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5306458, "relative_activity": 1.062091, "balance": 1.415815, "dry_up": 1.245009, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031518, "annualized_volatility": 0.164498, "from_high_reference": -0.104033, "from_low_reference": 0.051817 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.04357, "fair_value_reference": 9.302156, "structural_low": 9.402777, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006929, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002499, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.141622, "worst_return": -0.051692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014067, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01304, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.134466, "worst_return": -0.139656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009669, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045877, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.1152, "worst_return": -0.187936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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9.871891, 9.791282, 9.876564, 9.972095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.03, "volume": 6748017, "typical_volume": 5734995.25, "trend": 10.104476, "fair_value": 9.281191, "relative_strength": -8.082715, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.209016, "energy": 17.972465, "activity_lines": [ 9.942338, 9.838676, 9.886527, 9.966988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.72, "volume": 7693473, "typical_volume": 5669817.6, "trend": 10.088215, "fair_value": 9.286416, "relative_strength": -10.125018, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.038626, "energy": 19.688856, "activity_lines": [ 9.886355, 9.83038, 9.868551, 9.942183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.67, "volume": 5133503, "typical_volume": 5420092.25, "trend": 10.065764, "fair_value": 9.293258, "relative_strength": -11.272241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.954111, "energy": 22.552699, "activity_lines": [ 9.81, 9.810936, 9.847771, 9.915202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.89, "volume": 5306458, "typical_volume": 4996238.25, "trend": 10.04357, "fair_value": 9.302156, "relative_strength": -12.050934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.630502, "energy": 19.705357, "activity_lines": [ 9.820667, 9.830171, 9.848647, 9.903862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }