{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "279cbb0f-72e2-4acc-8fe4-b73c18951278",
    "symbol": "DNL",
    "name": "Dyno Nobel Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 48.844,
    "architecture_energy": 32.263,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.615,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.28,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.24,
        "rotation_up": 36.29,
        "upward_expansion": 62.23,
        "deceleration": 85.34,
        "rotation_down": 27.25,
        "downward_expansion": 21.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.756667,
        3.776068,
        3.697692,
        3.581264
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 3.81,
    "trend_reference": 3.463057,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.100184,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2.844631,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339365,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 9.470101,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.208876,
    "excess_performance": 0.145171,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100184,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059279,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.339365,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.136814,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094701,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011341,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.208876,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.131209,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 16837073,
      "relative_activity": 0.855342,
      "balance": 2.131209,
      "dry_up": 0.950417,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.044735,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.272525,
      "from_high_reference": -0.037879,
      "from_low_reference": 0.377371
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.463057,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.844631,
      "structural_low": 2.79601,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.019601,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.023528,
        "regime_survival": 0.3,
        "best_return": 0.071661,
        "worst_return": -0.07658,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.023304,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021214,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.140303,
        "worst_return": -0.134565,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.059993,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.048494,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.342787,
        "worst_return": -0.205234,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.135706,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.215533,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.372888,
        "worst_return": -0.239117,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.056361,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043771,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00722,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.002167,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037594,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.077465,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.044872,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.055375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.069678,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051282,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.142415,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025908,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007937,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      {
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 22419210.05,
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        "fair_value": 2.820414,
        "relative_strength": 11.787369,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 50.61817,
        "energy": 46.086425,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.756,
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          3.514525
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3.73,
        "volume": 21528304,
        "typical_volume": 22144105.4,
        "trend": 3.427414,
        "fair_value": 2.828156,
        "relative_strength": 14.273322,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.596013,
        "energy": 36.67112,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.737333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.78,
        "volume": 16282534,
        "typical_volume": 20485933.25,
        "trend": 3.4477,
        "fair_value": 2.836271,
        "relative_strength": 12.594278,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.78035,
        "energy": 29.495547,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.739333,
          3.770952,
          3.670603,
          3.557889
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3.81,
        "volume": 16837073,
        "typical_volume": 19684612.95,
        "trend": 3.463057,
        "fair_value": 2.844631,
        "relative_strength": 9.470101,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.84385,
        "energy": 32.263229,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.756667,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}