{ "ticker": { "uuid": "279dcfdf-a2b9-42bf-af0c-3a2b63e29d51", "symbol": "XBSK", "name": "Batavia SRI-KEHATI ETF", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.337, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.913, "architecture_energy": 26.243, "architecture_maturity": 94.955, "architecture_confidence": 59.735, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.5, "rotation_up": 28.41, "upward_expansion": 22.65, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 20.91, "downward_expansion": 56.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 388.933333, 383.163636, 388.742857, 400.524731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 398.0, "trend_reference": 418.7, "distance_from_trend": -0.049439, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 453.358974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122108, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.145652, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136659, "excess_performance": 0.055597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049439, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064497, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122108, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016246, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071457, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040606, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136659, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.014658, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 600, "relative_activity": 0.188976, "balance": 0.014658, "dry_up": 0.062992, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031117, "annualized_volatility": 0.304382, "from_high_reference": -0.184426, "from_low_reference": 0.18806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 418.7, "fair_value_reference": 453.358974, "structural_low": 335.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.021873, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.15, "median_excess_return": 0.014679, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.070258, "worst_return": -0.14966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.079646, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.026361, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.128743, "worst_return": -0.116822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011062, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002724, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155689, "worst_return": -0.079665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01232, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079268, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.026087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022422, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070093, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 498.0, "volume": 133400, "typical_volume": 65875.0, "trend": 468.166667, "fair_value": 414.916667, "relative_strength": 3.210974, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.112067, "energy": 54.385718, "activity_lines": [ 378.533333, 377.272727, 392.266667, 406.896774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 386.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3165.0, "trend": 423.6, "fair_value": 454.641026, "relative_strength": 7.836442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.571952, "energy": 48.342293, "activity_lines": [ 380.666667, 377.945455, 390.380952, 404.305376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 388.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3150.0, "trend": 421.0, "fair_value": 453.961538, "relative_strength": 7.520069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.623564, "energy": 40.222656, "activity_lines": [ 383.466667, 379.472727, 388.971429, 402.008602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 398.0, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 3175.0, "trend": 418.7, "fair_value": 453.358974, "relative_strength": 7.145652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.912968, "energy": 26.242541, "activity_lines": [ 388.933333, 383.163636, 388.742857, 400.524731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }