{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27a396c7-2c02-4a2e-894c-c045380b53ba", "symbol": "9590", "name": "Armah Sports Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.753, "architecture_energy": 81.077, "architecture_maturity": 76.903, "architecture_confidence": 94.019, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 16.75, "upward_expansion": 18.77, "deceleration": 37.67, "rotation_down": 73.71, "downward_expansion": 96.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.503333, 56.696364, 58.373571, 60.426559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 54.5, "trend_reference": 63.1, "distance_from_trend": -0.136292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.17554, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.244897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.751624, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.221429, "excess_performance": -0.189599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.244897, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03263, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036578, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.607261, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67529, "relative_activity": 1.382959, "balance": 0.607261, "dry_up": 0.64367, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049471, "annualized_volatility": 0.16955, "from_high_reference": -0.359577, "from_low_reference": 0.048077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.1, "fair_value_reference": 72.17554, "structural_low": 52.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.012791, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.051274, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.051298, "worst_return": -0.099631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072037, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.104894, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.026415, "worst_return": -0.132353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.14589, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.15767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.1, "worst_return": -0.191781, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"typical_volume": 48701.5, "trend": 64.095, "fair_value": 72.431752, "relative_strength": -18.790345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.287292, "energy": 64.215914, "activity_lines": [ 57.33, 58.006363, 59.672381, 61.616774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.75, "volume": 23330, "typical_volume": 46140.0, "trend": 63.603333, "fair_value": 72.303623, "relative_strength": -19.153652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.765792, "energy": 76.495072, "activity_lines": [ 56.316667, 57.326363, 59.008095, 61.013871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.5, "volume": 67529, "typical_volume": 48829.35, "trend": 63.1, "fair_value": 72.17554, "relative_strength": -20.751624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.753141, "energy": 81.077307, "activity_lines": [ 55.503333, 56.696364, 58.373571, 60.426559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }