{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27a8e02d-4995-4a81-a34b-110006e67170", "symbol": "ETG", "name": "EnviTec Biogas AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.648, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.348, "architecture_energy": 50.563, "architecture_maturity": 26.222, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.29, "rotation_up": 25.55, "upward_expansion": 7.74, "deceleration": 48.97, "rotation_down": 52.46, "downward_expansion": 81.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.34, 18.537273, 19.773572, 20.746882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.700001, "trend_reference": 21.123333, "distance_from_trend": -0.162064, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.851609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.340822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.634443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005682, "excess_performance": -0.058958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162064, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011654, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.340822, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189994, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323723, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.37182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5576, "relative_activity": 0.697824, "balance": 0.37182, "dry_up": 0.498683, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096045, "annualized_volatility": 0.57486, "from_high_reference": -0.374558, "from_low_reference": 0.113208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.123333, "fair_value_reference": 26.851609, "structural_low": 17.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.013244, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.010711, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.431818, "worst_return": -0.243354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.039366, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005269, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.586207, "worst_return": -0.281569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.129444, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.196373, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.148605, "worst_return": -0.26626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 10827.75, "trend": 21.091667, "fair_value": 27.269456, "relative_strength": -10.720164, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.170732, "energy": 62.284802, "activity_lines": [ 18.496667, 19.016364, 20.826191, 21.275269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 4775, "typical_volume": 9827.05, "trend": 21.138333, "fair_value": 27.122955, "relative_strength": -9.855174, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.799492, "energy": 60.388663, "activity_lines": [ 18.56, 18.900909, 20.480238, 21.127419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.7, "volume": 1998, "typical_volume": 9145.95, "trend": 21.16, "fair_value": 26.981567, "relative_strength": -12.002162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.018295, "energy": 47.397454, "activity_lines": [ 18.636667, 18.792727, 20.155238, 20.970108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 5576, "typical_volume": 7990.55, "trend": 21.123333, "fair_value": 26.851609, "relative_strength": -18.634443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.347907, "energy": 50.562517, "activity_lines": [ 18.34, 18.537273, 19.773572, 20.746882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }