{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27aec015-4476-4ce0-8bd1-c906a61de745", "symbol": "AFX", "name": "Carl Zeiss Meditec AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.796, "architecture_energy": 48.802, "architecture_maturity": 14.639, "architecture_confidence": 63.444, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.24, "rotation_up": 64.82, "upward_expansion": 83.89, "deceleration": 49.35, "rotation_down": 13.33, "downward_expansion": 8.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.606666, 28.892, 27.739143, 27.119945 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.9, "trend_reference": 26.986002, "distance_from_trend": 0.107982, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 58.560338, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.489416, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.153094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110923, "excess_performance": 0.046283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107982, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.489416, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112461, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189292, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110923, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.528362, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1873273, "relative_activity": 1.919951, "balance": 0.528362, "dry_up": 1.654072, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086236, "annualized_volatility": 0.354631, "from_high_reference": -0.367812, "from_low_reference": 0.351574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.986002, "fair_value_reference": 58.560338, "structural_low": 22.122361, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073099, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.043367, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.152011, "worst_return": -0.152945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028783, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.06328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.182826, "worst_return": -0.119118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.311141, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.341973, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.044853, "worst_return": -0.329425, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.920834, "energy": 35.260544, "activity_lines": [ 28.316, 27.257818, 26.539577, 26.717794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.299999, "volume": 1734718, "typical_volume": 965249.15, "trend": 27.99647, "fair_value": 59.830125, "relative_strength": -16.63937, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.369201, "energy": 53.671791, "activity_lines": [ 28.977333, 27.747272, 26.858934, 26.780606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.799999, "volume": 1298553, "typical_volume": 974429.85, "trend": 27.609357, "fair_value": 59.36781, "relative_strength": -20.724103, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.280017, "energy": 53.42554, "activity_lines": [ 28.851999, 27.898909, 27.022212, 26.76793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.5, "volume": 1548889, "typical_volume": 987711.85, "trend": 27.334412, "fair_value": 58.952215, "relative_strength": -13.946097, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.007719, "energy": 59.631288, "activity_lines": [ 29.436, 28.488363, 27.426867, 26.954423 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.9, "volume": 1873273, "typical_volume": 975688.0, "trend": 26.986002, "fair_value": 58.560338, "relative_strength": -17.153094, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.795594, "energy": 48.801964, "activity_lines": [ 29.606666, 28.892, 27.739143, 27.119945 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }