{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27af2276-1fea-4063-8757-59c28591c7cc", "symbol": "688777", "name": "Supcon Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.793, "architecture_energy": 24.222, "architecture_maturity": 77.981, "architecture_confidence": 94.31, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.75, "rotation_up": 23.08, "upward_expansion": 54.38, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 38.93, "downward_expansion": 22.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.430669, 99.244728, 95.321736, 89.941132 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 103.480003, "trend_reference": 83.508973, "distance_from_trend": 0.239148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.270029, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.942556, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 49.851252, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.234403, "excess_performance": 0.277607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.239148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.264483, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.942556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.324875, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.498513, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.234403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.27226, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121358837, "relative_activity": 1.429901, "balance": 1.27226, "dry_up": 1.18811, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16097, "annualized_volatility": 0.628182, "from_high_reference": -0.203939, "from_low_reference": 1.215372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.508973, "fair_value_reference": 53.270029, "structural_low": 62.299999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.06016, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.033745, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.631245, "worst_return": -0.099944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.164911, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.128484, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.858209, "worst_return": -0.157769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.284477, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.237631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.713577, "worst_return": -0.075523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 45.762594, "energy": 35.694025, "activity_lines": [ 102.414666, 103.246461, 93.2752, 87.524718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.900002, "volume": 90491049, "typical_volume": 82353047.75, "trend": 80.240973, "fair_value": 52.682894, "relative_strength": 25.801787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.831163, "energy": 21.569423, "activity_lines": [ 93.639333, 100.005423, 92.975299, 87.705344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 93.120003, "volume": 97958807, "typical_volume": 83520346.95, "trend": 81.704307, "fair_value": 52.94456, "relative_strength": 40.618225, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.844864, "energy": 24.333986, "activity_lines": [ 91.444001, 98.748723, 93.707541, 88.536249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.480003, "volume": 121358837, "typical_volume": 84872209.0, "trend": 83.508973, "fair_value": 53.270029, "relative_strength": 49.851252, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.792996, "energy": 24.221905, "activity_lines": [ 94.430669, 99.244728, 95.321736, 89.941132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }