{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27b0a2bc-aef8-499d-a23b-bee93aa4a5a2", "symbol": "603269", "name": "Jiangsu Seagull Cooling Tower Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.295, "architecture_energy": 22.392, "architecture_maturity": 73.825, "architecture_confidence": 70.173, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.59, "rotation_up": 21.29, "upward_expansion": 45.87, "deceleration": 82.25, "rotation_down": 46.06, "downward_expansion": 35.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.714667, 13.873598, 14.058477, 13.287817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.12, "trend_reference": 12.169126, "distance_from_trend": 0.160313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.89936, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.046567, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.260987, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.6535, "excess_performance": 0.696703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.160313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.046567, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067378, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.32261, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.6535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.588994, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142345274, "relative_activity": 0.923237, "balance": 2.588994, "dry_up": 0.783051, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191827, "annualized_volatility": 0.829155, "from_high_reference": -0.267255, "from_low_reference": 0.987158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.169126, "fair_value_reference": 6.89936, "structural_low": 8.433516, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.036754, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.075511, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.498589, "worst_return": -0.096026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.130624, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.155868, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.878049, "worst_return": -0.158205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.473892, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.580265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.891892, "worst_return": -0.009708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1221, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.418637, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047753, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013295, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151376, "active": 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"volume": 112454917, "typical_volume": 163401494.05, "trend": 11.958012, "fair_value": 6.801351, "relative_strength": 8.843151, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.201108, "energy": 15.307559, "activity_lines": [ 13.644979, 14.744214, 14.154858, 13.203601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.15, "volume": 104864180, "typical_volume": 153705514.05, "trend": 12.006652, "fair_value": 6.839709, "relative_strength": 8.589858, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.07499, "energy": 20.052339, "activity_lines": [ 12.525333, 13.991942, 13.964458, 13.151472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.12, "volume": 142345274, "typical_volume": 154180660.2, "trend": 12.169126, "fair_value": 6.89936, "relative_strength": 32.260987, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.294578, "energy": 22.391975, "activity_lines": [ 12.714667, 13.873598, 14.058477, 13.287817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }