{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27b68fe1-caf9-42fc-877f-9acf744b8ca8", "symbol": "A1AP34", "name": "Advance Auto Parts, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.359, "architecture_energy": 19.836, "architecture_maturity": 73.149, "architecture_confidence": 85.243, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.51, "rotation_up": 24.73, "upward_expansion": 50.56, "deceleration": 87.49, "rotation_down": 38.94, "downward_expansion": 25.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.876666, 18.284751, 18.247543, 17.979418 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.469999, "trend_reference": 17.553394, "distance_from_trend": 0.052218, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.540468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052994, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.923815, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.036271, "excess_performance": 0.09332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052218, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05813, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084171, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009238, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17007, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036271, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.184472, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 393, "relative_activity": 0.362981, "balance": 1.184472, "dry_up": 0.348204, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086547, "annualized_volatility": 0.482962, "from_high_reference": -0.250029, "from_low_reference": 0.438814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.553394, "fair_value_reference": 17.540468, "structural_low": 15.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006711, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01836, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.133095, "worst_return": -0.116957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.070325, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.020715, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.210134, "worst_return": -0.098959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.240954, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.442046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.09038, "worst_return": -0.383016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 17.66, "volume": 307, "typical_volume": 1071.6, "trend": 17.257077, "fair_value": 17.578294, "relative_strength": -5.62246, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.123855, "energy": 17.818086, "activity_lines": [ 17.965171, 18.481482, 18.200902, 17.881459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.719999, "volume": 698, "typical_volume": 1076.45, "trend": 17.414549, "fair_value": 17.558365, "relative_strength": -6.799798, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.13749, "energy": 22.146959, "activity_lines": [ 17.719951, 18.307753, 18.190018, 17.911325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.469999, "volume": 393, "typical_volume": 1082.7, "trend": 17.553394, "fair_value": 17.540468, "relative_strength": 0.923815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.358561, "energy": 19.836004, "activity_lines": [ 17.876666, 18.284751, 18.247543, 17.979418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }