{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27beea3b-49a3-435f-ba67-ead180d508fd", "symbol": "QUED", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Quality Europe UCITS ETF Dis", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.77, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.3, "architecture_energy": 57.237, "architecture_maturity": 57.119, "architecture_confidence": 68.073, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.84, "rotation_up": 50.14, "upward_expansion": 75.33, "deceleration": 64.01, "rotation_down": 28.54, "downward_expansion": 13.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.566667, 156.418182, 154.779564, 153.0443 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 159.440002, "trend_reference": 151.080133, "distance_from_trend": 0.055334, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 132.627667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202162, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.502338, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071211, "excess_performance": 0.017899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055334, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202162, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025023, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031606, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071211, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.039749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10, "relative_activity": 0.159872, "balance": 1.039749, "dry_up": 0.163869, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013644, "annualized_volatility": 0.148747, "from_high_reference": -0.003126, "from_low_reference": 0.216514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 151.080133, "fair_value_reference": 132.627667, "structural_low": 137.054248, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.002095, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.004116, "regime_survival": 0.775, "best_return": 0.056075, "worst_return": -0.114569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.001141, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003719, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.040043, "worst_return": -0.09225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.037914, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.015887, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099053, "worst_return": -0.180945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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155.606545, 153.393474, 151.858812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 153.820007, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 135.15, "trend": 150.225293, "fair_value": 132.082807, "relative_strength": 3.151353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.247432, "energy": 50.257393, "activity_lines": [ 155.490668, 155.484364, 153.652219, 152.113816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 155.839996, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 62.05, "trend": 150.632198, "fair_value": 132.346091, "relative_strength": 2.752482, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.88959, "energy": 35.511799, "activity_lines": [ 155.405333, 155.667273, 154.06854, 152.476055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 159.440002, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 62.55, "trend": 151.080133, "fair_value": 132.627667, "relative_strength": 2.502338, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.300182, "energy": 57.236844, "activity_lines": [ 156.566667, 156.418182, 154.779564, 153.0443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }