{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27c0754e-47ce-4085-b7a0-fac5b331c61d", "symbol": "300717", "name": "Jiangsu Huaxin New Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.203, "architecture_energy": 45.179, "architecture_maturity": 10.364, "architecture_confidence": 76.757, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.95, "rotation_up": 14.65, "upward_expansion": 10.65, "deceleration": 39.79, "rotation_down": 64.14, "downward_expansion": 76.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.166666, 19.122909, 19.578095, 19.960242 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.209999, "trend_reference": 20.336019, "distance_from_trend": -0.104545, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.747881, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.341203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.127759, "excess_performance": -0.135159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104545, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006653, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127759, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.906381, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14772201, "relative_activity": 1.065835, "balance": 0.906381, "dry_up": 1.774783, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147069, "annualized_volatility": 0.623723, "from_high_reference": -0.339791, "from_low_reference": 0.174839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.336019, "fair_value_reference": 16.747881, "structural_low": 15.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.06656, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.00296, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.147394, "worst_return": -0.125268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022778, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.366956, "worst_return": -0.020498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.081429, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.031425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157925, "worst_return": -0.038608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053126, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044325, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078004, "active": false }, { 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11095516.7, "trend": 20.44087, "fair_value": 16.711752, "relative_strength": 6.846987, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.234723, "energy": 38.08774, "activity_lines": [ 21.700667, 20.54489, 20.556653, 20.620909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.5, "volume": 29975642, "typical_volume": 12141808.8, "trend": 20.488057, "fair_value": 16.731017, "relative_strength": -4.790654, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.630805, "energy": 20.771216, "activity_lines": [ 21.376, 20.389895, 20.438467, 20.560208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.65, "volume": 32423971, "typical_volume": 13138278.15, "trend": 20.413834, "fair_value": 16.732943, "relative_strength": -18.613645, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.145962, "energy": 23.366917, "activity_lines": [ 19.967333, 19.764727, 20.062136, 20.312592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.1, "volume": 21220351, "typical_volume": 13633145.6, "trend": 20.357582, "fair_value": 16.735459, "relative_strength": -14.739201, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.986621, "energy": 42.651666, "activity_lines": [ 18.718667, 19.307273, 19.754902, 20.098796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.209999, "volume": 14772201, "typical_volume": 13859747.5, "trend": 20.336019, "fair_value": 16.747881, "relative_strength": -13.341203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.202897, "energy": 45.179251, "activity_lines": [ 18.166666, 19.122909, 19.578095, 19.960242 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }