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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 74.964, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.107, "architecture_energy": 29.214, "architecture_maturity": 30.006, "architecture_confidence": 59.628, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.89, "rotation_up": 44.0, "upward_expansion": 73.59, "deceleration": 61.73, "rotation_down": 26.92, "downward_expansion": 7.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.240307, 113.793687, 111.759336, 110.366511 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 118.5, "trend_reference": 109.636054, "distance_from_trend": 0.080849, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 109.958956, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077675, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.021673, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061685, "excess_performance": -0.379687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080849, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028877, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077675, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133898, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240217, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061685, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.69454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69000, "relative_activity": 1.097893, "balance": 2.69454, "dry_up": 0.709068, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068757, "annualized_volatility": 0.35775, "from_high_reference": -0.086639, "from_low_reference": 0.229872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.636054, "fair_value_reference": 109.958956, "structural_low": 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"typical_volume": 59645.75, "trend": 108.880336, "fair_value": 109.335288, "relative_strength": -26.265379, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.842286, "energy": 16.69694, "activity_lines": [ 111.169875, 112.872577, 110.145489, 109.366556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 115.0, "volume": 43238, "typical_volume": 60207.65, "trend": 109.120364, "fair_value": 109.633321, "relative_strength": -24.801614, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.947522, "energy": 18.92342, "activity_lines": [ 112.107393, 113.132447, 110.801755, 109.761373 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 118.5, "volume": 69000, "typical_volume": 62847.65, "trend": 109.636054, "fair_value": 109.958956, "relative_strength": -24.021673, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.106837, "energy": 29.214386, "activity_lines": [ 114.240307, 113.793687, 111.759336, 110.366511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }