{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "27ce3048-cb15-47ef-97e6-c6d3595dea73",
    "symbol": "SPXE",
    "name": "Invesco S&P 500 Scored & Screened ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.44,
    "architecture_energy": 62.207,
    "architecture_maturity": 45.825,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.608,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.18,
        "rotation_up": 53.69,
        "upward_expansion": 80.66,
        "deceleration": 70.59,
        "rotation_down": 27.73,
        "downward_expansion": 9.66
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        105.835334,
        105.292727,
        104.229405,
        102.175914
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 109.139999,
    "trend_reference": 99.867167,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.092852,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 81.213098,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.343872,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.275943,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.126025,
    "excess_performance": 0.07479,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.092852,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036954,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.343872,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014708,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042759,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022333,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126025,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.729661,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 58875,
      "relative_activity": 0.966211,
      "balance": 1.729661,
      "dry_up": 1.044332,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018926,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.125914,
      "from_high_reference": -0.006723,
      "from_low_reference": 0.259986
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 99.867167,
      "fair_value_reference": 81.213098,
      "structural_low": 88.980003,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.014408,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012866,
        "regime_survival": 0.222222,
        "best_return": 0.082815,
        "worst_return": -0.053105,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.048191,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.023722,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.115021,
        "worst_return": -0.106125,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.128271,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.128266,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.162731,
        "worst_return": 0.048819,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.095095,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.048477,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.34009,
        "worst_return": -0.140866,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009165,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.083981,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040978,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.019081,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020264,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.076792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.09434,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020467,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.05028,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.032899,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.038332,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014459,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.007577,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045703,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "typical_volume": 11451.3,
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 67991.5,
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        "fair_value": 79.806335,
        "relative_strength": 2.793477,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 80.087938,
        "relative_strength": 4.582167,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 104.019997,
        "volume": 142383,
        "typical_volume": 69655.05,
        "trend": 98.889834,
        "fair_value": 80.359508,
        "relative_strength": 2.383139,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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          102.780786,
          100.902398
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 103.720001,
        "volume": 29086,
        "typical_volume": 68899.8,
        "trend": 99.150167,
        "fair_value": 80.625406,
        "relative_strength": 0.763787,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.408901,
        "energy": 47.794616,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 104.370003,
        "volume": 24197,
        "typical_volume": 64495.1,
        "trend": 99.4505,
        "fair_value": 80.900566,
        "relative_strength": 0.115116,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.713612,
        "energy": 40.785084,
        "activity_lines": [
          104.274668,
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          103.475024,
          101.550785
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 109.139999,
        "volume": 58875,
        "typical_volume": 60933.9,
        "trend": 99.867167,
        "fair_value": 81.213098,
        "relative_strength": 4.275943,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.440121,
        "energy": 62.207192,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}