{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "27d1c341-5202-473d-bfa8-ee657c5b35c1",
    "symbol": "WCH",
    "name": "Wacker Chemie AG",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 13.841,
    "architecture_energy": 14.804,
    "architecture_maturity": 53.675,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.047,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 48.33,
        "rotation_up": 21.64,
        "upward_expansion": 43.09,
        "deceleration": 83.87,
        "rotation_down": 37.3,
        "downward_expansion": 34.76
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        90.883332,
        91.749999,
        93.548094,
        91.161074
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 94.699997,
    "trend_reference": 86.919999,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.089508,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 83.957044,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127958,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.457851,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.256802,
    "excess_performance": 0.082555,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.089508,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.103699,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.127958,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034359,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004579,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.135152,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.256802,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.285398,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 2.285398,
      "dry_up": 3.333333,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.067866,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.537933,
      "from_high_reference": -0.082364,
      "from_low_reference": 0.547386
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 86.919999,
      "fair_value_reference": 83.957044,
      "structural_low": 63.450001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.00113,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006162,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.18053,
        "worst_return": -0.091179,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.186779,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.095989,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.284137,
        "worst_return": -0.004042,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.086882,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.032292,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.110888,
        "worst_return": -0.066242,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.021942,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010147,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.129042,
        "worst_return": -0.172925,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-09-29",
        "end": "2023-10-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.074797,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-10-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.091643,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-11-03",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.1061,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.088765,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.034689,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.038122,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.217056,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012729,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.032085,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.023863,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.036846,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007394,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005464,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 26.25,
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        "trend": 74.49,
        "fair_value": 86.30193,
        "relative_strength": 14.407177,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.65479,
        "energy": 79.373257,
        "activity_lines": [
          93.086667,
          87.595455,
          82.178572,
          78.671291
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 94.199997,
        "volume": 8,
        "typical_volume": 133.3,
        "trend": 75.481667,
        "fair_value": 86.137591,
        "relative_strength": 13.05735,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.835051,
        "energy": 76.068201,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.086666,
          89.534545,
          83.725238,
          79.942903
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 99.199997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 133.3,
        "trend": 76.598334,
        "fair_value": 86.009811,
        "relative_strength": 19.145213,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.394944,
        "energy": 75.149649,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.923332,
          92.148181,
          85.622143,
          81.473118
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 102.599998,
        "volume": 122,
        "typical_volume": 139.4,
        "trend": 77.691667,
        "fair_value": 85.900235,
        "relative_strength": 20.18069,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.994982,
        "energy": 65.797991,
        "activity_lines": [
          98.379998,
          94.788181,
          87.689285,
          83.150645
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 100.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 139.4,
        "trend": 78.753333,
        "fair_value": 85.78019,
        "relative_strength": 14.208297,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.488895,
        "energy": 58.591,
        "activity_lines": [
          99.509998,
          96.633635,
          89.407857,
          84.62215
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 97.099998,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 103.15,
        "trend": 79.728333,
        "fair_value": 85.704484,
        "relative_strength": 11.238978,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.444931,
        "energy": 55.565505,
        "activity_lines": [
          99.193332,
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          90.659285,
          85.805806
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 94.199997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 103.15,
        "trend": 80.57,
        "fair_value": 85.560512,
        "relative_strength": 4.770178,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.697743,
        "energy": 51.101892,
        "activity_lines": [
          97.686665,
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          91.511428,
          86.739462
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 98.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 88.3,
        "trend": 81.581667,
        "fair_value": 85.466934,
        "relative_strength": 4.351314,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.350628,
        "energy": 43.157735,
        "activity_lines": [
          97.446665,
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          92.624285,
          87.863978
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 92.0,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 65.3,
        "trend": 82.463333,
        "fair_value": 85.309758,
        "relative_strength": -0.162991,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.22278,
        "energy": 31.401267,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.286666,
          96.618181,
          93.025952,
          88.536129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 94.699997,
        "volume": 10,
        "typical_volume": 59.3,
        "trend": 83.383333,
        "fair_value": 85.16181,
        "relative_strength": 0.274764,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.159221,
        "energy": 25.621087,
        "activity_lines": [
          94.733332,
          96.24818,
          93.605475,
          89.325591
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 91.599998,
        "volume": 113,
        "typical_volume": 64.95,
        "trend": 84.11,
        "fair_value": 84.95838,
        "relative_strength": -1.62932,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.281816,
        "energy": 21.419349,
        "activity_lines": [
          93.533332,
          95.334544,
          93.819761,
          89.855698
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 88.900002,
        "volume": 339,
        "typical_volume": 74.55,
        "trend": 84.815,
        "fair_value": 84.712505,
        "relative_strength": -2.628919,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.378258,
        "energy": 20.081501,
        "activity_lines": [
          91.8,
          93.96909,
          93.717618,
          90.164731
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 88.449997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 74.55,
        "trend": 85.531666,
        "fair_value": 84.432325,
        "relative_strength": -4.266352,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.261701,
        "energy": 14.113,
        "activity_lines": [
          90.269999,
          92.618181,
          93.536427,
          90.399247
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 88.75,
        "volume": 901,
        "typical_volume": 100.35,
        "trend": 86.11,
        "fair_value": 84.172023,
        "relative_strength": -3.893848,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 1.863584,
        "energy": 16.728111,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.476666,
          91.517272,
          93.279999,
          90.606881
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 94.699997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 93.0,
        "trend": 86.919999,
        "fair_value": 83.957044,
        "relative_strength": -0.457851,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 13.840718,
        "energy": 14.804244,
        "activity_lines": [
          90.883332,
          91.749999,
          93.548094,
          91.161074
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}