{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27d2bcdc-f9cb-45e3-9f0b-7162ec24b981", "symbol": "AM7", "name": "Arcadia Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.983, "architecture_energy": 13.494, "architecture_maturity": 30.54, "architecture_confidence": 69.907, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.06, "rotation_up": 34.11, "upward_expansion": 56.33, "deceleration": 63.48, "rotation_down": 25.59, "downward_expansion": 24.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0412, 0.040655, 0.04291, 0.041433 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.043, "trend_reference": 0.03935, "distance_from_trend": 0.092757, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.045484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054612, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.008443, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.194444, "excess_performance": 0.130739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092757, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131853, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070084, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270441, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.194444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.251265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239534, "relative_activity": 0.402312, "balance": 6.251265, "dry_up": 1.01371, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107335, "annualized_volatility": 0.951523, "from_high_reference": -0.245614, "from_low_reference": 0.72 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.03935, "fair_value_reference": 0.045484, "structural_low": 0.025, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.100924, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.323529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.330882, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.368879, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.25, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062346, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.388889, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.411765, "positive_rate": 1.0, 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"2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", 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749870, "typical_volume": 555791.3, "trend": 0.03875, "fair_value": 0.046708, "relative_strength": 6.941712, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.655413, "energy": 30.28412, "activity_lines": [ 0.038333, 0.041982, 0.042938, 0.040953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.036, "volume": 274939, "typical_volume": 565438.25, "trend": 0.03875, "fair_value": 0.046234, "relative_strength": -4.014064, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.43065, "energy": 36.060282, "activity_lines": [ 0.0374, 0.040327, 0.042476, 0.040775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.045, "volume": 1149881, "typical_volume": 606053.75, "trend": 0.03905, "fair_value": 0.045881, "relative_strength": 16.317611, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.251762, "energy": 19.812395, "activity_lines": [ 0.0398, 0.040564, 0.042829, 0.041178 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.043, "volume": 239534, "typical_volume": 595393.4, "trend": 0.03935, "fair_value": 0.045484, "relative_strength": 7.008443, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.982781, "energy": 13.493838, "activity_lines": [ 0.0412, 0.040655, 0.04291, 0.041433 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }