{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27d56fee-21b0-4571-b670-67ec5ea3b778", "symbol": "SOCL", "name": "GLOBAL X SOCIAL MEDIA ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.168, "architecture_energy": 8.22, "architecture_maturity": 17.369, "architecture_confidence": 88.638, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.83, "rotation_up": 26.33, "upward_expansion": 22.63, "deceleration": 41.57, "rotation_down": 23.83, "downward_expansion": 47.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.779547, 45.431521, 45.513686, 45.824 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.9233, "trend_reference": 47.192073, "distance_from_trend": -0.005695, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.271482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.827059, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089255, "excess_performance": -0.276709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005695, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066226, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0298, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046156, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.580019, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44265, "relative_activity": 1.148475, "balance": 0.580019, "dry_up": 0.715362, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057274, "annualized_volatility": 0.280957, "from_high_reference": -0.264335, "from_low_reference": 0.135966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.192073, "fair_value_reference": 45.271482, "structural_low": 41.306976, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026778, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.0248, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.176101, "worst_return": -0.102962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.115992, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.032548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.261722, "worst_return": -0.231313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.105074, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.137456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215161, "worst_return": -0.298525, "sufficient": true }, { 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"down", "direction": -36.917208, "energy": 23.194793, "activity_lines": [ 45.335839, 45.292541, 45.459389, 46.290419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.1322, "volume": 22627, "typical_volume": 41949.95, "trend": 47.919233, "fair_value": 45.164426, "relative_strength": -22.508654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.207196, "energy": 24.473456, "activity_lines": [ 45.050921, 45.081483, 45.336235, 46.02293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.455, "volume": 31520, "typical_volume": 37539.2, "trend": 47.542483, "fair_value": 45.209052, "relative_strength": -20.032326, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.709603, "energy": 14.30097, "activity_lines": [ 45.26454, 45.134101, 45.352832, 45.863947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.9233, "volume": 44265, "typical_volume": 38542.4, "trend": 47.192073, "fair_value": 45.271482, "relative_strength": -20.827059, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.167639, "energy": 8.220212, "activity_lines": [ 45.779547, 45.431521, 45.513686, 45.824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }