{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27d8d7d1-de69-440b-92ca-2a8912f0bc3e", "symbol": "00643K", "name": "CAPITAL SZSE SME 100 INDEX EXCHANGE TRADED FUND", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.92, "architecture_energy": 43.632, "architecture_maturity": 44.535, "architecture_confidence": 69.032, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.01, "rotation_up": 16.67, "upward_expansion": 21.16, "deceleration": 66.27, "rotation_down": 71.31, "downward_expansion": 46.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.992667, 4.096909, 4.14181, 4.097484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.97, "trend_reference": 4.045333, "distance_from_trend": -0.018622, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.8225, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038587, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.900057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017949, "excess_performance": -0.361363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018622, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037176, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038587, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067872, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27000, "relative_activity": 3.776224, "balance": 0.444444, "dry_up": 2.447552, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030033, "annualized_volatility": 0.243027, "from_high_reference": -0.115813, "from_low_reference": 0.244514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.045333, "fair_value_reference": 3.8225, "structural_low": 3.76, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.002599, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.062663, "worst_return": -0.47216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.037587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.123089, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.084469, "worst_return": -0.47216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.451603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179837, "worst_return": -0.447552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.358974, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.493713, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.358974, "worst_return": -0.358974, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-12-03", "end": "2022-01-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-01-28", "end": "2022-02-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.261603, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046322, "active": 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"direction": 49.269886, "energy": 45.264126, "activity_lines": [ 4.281333, 4.294545, 4.179857, 4.107634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.09, "volume": 29000, "typical_volume": 5900.0, "trend": 4.027, "fair_value": 3.832756, "relative_strength": -21.064947, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.532027, "energy": 31.862121, "activity_lines": [ 4.224667, 4.253636, 4.180048, 4.112645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.95, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 5750.0, "trend": 4.037, "fair_value": 3.829295, "relative_strength": -25.168078, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.951566, "energy": 14.709945, "activity_lines": [ 4.124667, 4.191455, 4.166524, 4.107677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.95, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 5850.0, "trend": 4.041, "fair_value": 3.825833, "relative_strength": -23.92892, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.591665, "energy": 33.75012, "activity_lines": [ 4.040667, 4.138, 4.153143, 4.102065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.97, "volume": 27000, "typical_volume": 7150.0, "trend": 4.045333, "fair_value": 3.8225, "relative_strength": -24.900057, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.919911, "energy": 43.632272, "activity_lines": [ 3.992667, 4.096909, 4.14181, 4.097484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }