{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27e2f7b1-dd48-4aa0-9487-0537c505e5d1", "symbol": "FMS", "name": "Fresenius Medical Care Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.742, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.295, "architecture_energy": 67.412, "architecture_maturity": 16.143, "architecture_confidence": 70.205, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.09, "rotation_up": 71.83, "upward_expansion": 90.01, "deceleration": 44.76, "rotation_down": 12.02, "downward_expansion": 14.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.666667, 24.230909, 23.331988, 22.93697 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.27, "trend_reference": 22.539159, "distance_from_trend": 0.076793, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.339723, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137316, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.653814, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048484, "excess_performance": -0.077141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076793, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017191, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140677, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149757, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.482724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6367290, "relative_activity": 1.864864, "balance": 1.482724, "dry_up": 1.12424, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049312, "annualized_volatility": 0.204451, "from_high_reference": -0.086559, "from_low_reference": 0.261114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.539159, "fair_value_reference": 21.339723, "structural_low": 19.244891, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.004004, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.013843, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.218606, "worst_return": -0.085616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.069258, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.034313, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.206966, "worst_return": -0.164794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091878, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.193286, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.345086, "worst_return": -0.205342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.021047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024761, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010408, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.895101, "volume": 2084689, "typical_volume": 2621365.4, "trend": 20.261378, "fair_value": 26.197215, "relative_strength": 16.41063, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.498062, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.241793, "energy": 73.99571, "activity_lines": [ 24.116667, 23.638182, 22.856193, 22.608333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.66, "volume": 3556903, "typical_volume": 3240334.05, "trend": 22.469066, "fair_value": 21.336278, "relative_strength": 1.847304, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.405041, "energy": 82.883379, "activity_lines": [ 24.704, 24.097455, 23.169215, 22.820781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.27, "volume": 6367290, "typical_volume": 3414345.75, "trend": 22.539159, "fair_value": 21.339723, "relative_strength": -6.653814, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.294594, "energy": 67.412393, "activity_lines": [ 24.666667, 24.230909, 23.331988, 22.93697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }