{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27ef5dd8-6939-4c67-b0cc-2c54314c62ae", "symbol": "METC", "name": "Ramaco Resources Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.875, "architecture_energy": 59.813, "architecture_maturity": 78.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.456, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.98, "rotation_up": 13.22, "upward_expansion": 10.72, "deceleration": 43.99, "rotation_down": 72.85, "downward_expansion": 88.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.243616, 11.033256, 12.374126, 13.161342 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.24, "trend_reference": 14.712925, "distance_from_trend": -0.304013, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.145505, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.670541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.438289, "excess_performance": -0.625742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.304013, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126302, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276095, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.546705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171598, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.438289, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.657545, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16527575, "relative_activity": 2.005118, "balance": 0.657545, "dry_up": 1.275317, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210331, "annualized_volatility": 0.555181, "from_high_reference": -0.822837, "from_low_reference": 0.196262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.712925, "fair_value_reference": 14.145505, "structural_low": 8.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.026502, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.044444, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.461988, "worst_return": -0.402597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.039483, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.067313, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 1.180806, "worst_return": -0.502525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091593, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.129632, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.260695, "worst_return": -0.626623, "sufficient": true 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.925698, "energy": 70.614953, "activity_lines": [ 11.211671, 12.117537, 13.103772, 13.871655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.17, "volume": 12008027, "typical_volume": 7895423.5, "trend": 15.050925, "fair_value": 14.123821, "relative_strength": -57.992037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.382972, "energy": 74.168227, "activity_lines": [ 10.467744, 11.434942, 12.675068, 13.471724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.24, "volume": 16527575, "typical_volume": 8242695.05, "trend": 14.712925, "fair_value": 14.145505, "relative_strength": -54.670541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.875097, "energy": 59.81328, "activity_lines": [ 10.243616, 11.033256, 12.374126, 13.161342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }