{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27f3f17c-f530-49ee-b432-52e0b266ce8b", "symbol": "FTAG", "name": "FIRST TRUST INDXX GLOBAL AGRICULTURE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.621, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.651, "architecture_energy": 22.612, "architecture_maturity": 11.169, "architecture_confidence": 50.615, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.53, "rotation_up": 58.68, "upward_expansion": 49.33, "deceleration": 33.03, "rotation_down": 19.39, "downward_expansion": 7.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.371113, 29.197015, 29.147953, 29.190106 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.5306, "trend_reference": 29.176199, "distance_from_trend": 0.012147, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.432815, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161122, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.318606, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.000655, "excess_performance": -0.186799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012147, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034121, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161122, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016734, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017927, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000655, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262562, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17305, "relative_activity": 0.654957, "balance": 0.262562, "dry_up": 0.482352, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024805, "annualized_volatility": 0.152522, "from_high_reference": -0.050294, "from_low_reference": 0.186518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.176199, "fair_value_reference": 25.432815, "structural_low": 27.669444, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.001377, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.005157, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.076653, "worst_return": -0.138803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02177, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.055242, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.159883, "worst_return": -0.076075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006946, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07335, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.147334, "worst_return": -0.074166, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 29.5886, "volume": 3254, "typical_volume": 27977.3, "trend": 29.007395, "fair_value": 25.398091, "relative_strength": -2.259757, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.387024, "energy": 30.774463, "activity_lines": [ 29.34536, 29.046563, 29.119006, 29.15578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.1013, "volume": 21007, "typical_volume": 27465.7, "trend": 29.09245, "fair_value": 25.413731, "relative_strength": -4.204363, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.144705, "energy": 15.852835, "activity_lines": [ 29.296187, 29.084189, 29.113344, 29.161838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.5306, "volume": 17305, "typical_volume": 26421.6, "trend": 29.176199, "fair_value": 25.432815, "relative_strength": -7.318606, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.651242, "energy": 22.611978, "activity_lines": [ 29.371113, 29.197015, 29.147953, 29.190106 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }