{ "ticker": { "uuid": "27fdea62-a973-4bf9-b848-410b88e0b7f4", "symbol": "I50D", "name": "iShares S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.545, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.069, "architecture_energy": 63.803, "architecture_maturity": 67.23, "architecture_confidence": 68.638, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.22, "rotation_up": 54.05, "upward_expansion": 81.17, "deceleration": 69.49, "rotation_down": 27.99, "downward_expansion": 10.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.514933, 8.471055, 8.391183, 8.223917 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.743, "trend_reference": 8.032916, "distance_from_trend": 0.088397, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.557567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.333269, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.055181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132043, "excess_performance": 0.015381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088397, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.333269, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004793, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000552, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.012085, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 304122, "relative_activity": 1.630967, "balance": 2.012085, "dry_up": 1.155944, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017852, "annualized_volatility": 0.13166, "from_high_reference": -0.001713, "from_low_reference": 0.234184 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.032916, "fair_value_reference": 6.557567, "structural_low": 7.167728, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.017407, "positive_rate": 0.703704, "directional_follow_through": 0.703704, "median_excess_return": -0.002489, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.059026, "worst_return": -0.087894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.048173, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": 0.011118, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.126738, "worst_return": -0.063272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111861, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.000991, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.1746, "worst_return": -0.009634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.488475, "relative_strength": -1.970781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.087287, "energy": 59.089914, "activity_lines": [ 8.438067, 8.431055, 8.27933, 8.12276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.392, "volume": 178800, "typical_volume": 201675.55, "trend": 7.977656, "fair_value": 6.510369, "relative_strength": -2.156882, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.830228, "energy": 57.53141, "activity_lines": [ 8.4268, 8.424691, 8.310265, 8.150935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.367, "volume": 131168, "typical_volume": 183730.0, "trend": 8.001115, "fair_value": 6.532522, "relative_strength": -3.202701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.890172, "energy": 46.027402, "activity_lines": [ 8.410333, 8.413109, 8.334962, 8.176054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.743, "volume": 304122, "typical_volume": 186467.25, "trend": 8.032916, "fair_value": 6.557567, "relative_strength": 0.055181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.068675, "energy": 63.803431, "activity_lines": [ 8.514933, 8.471055, 8.391183, 8.223917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }