{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2808b8a3-62c0-485f-95c9-50d1edccea4d", "symbol": "AGNT", "name": "eXp World Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.524, "architecture_energy": 60.324, "architecture_maturity": 76.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.11, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.2, "rotation_up": 17.03, "upward_expansion": 11.72, "deceleration": 42.4, "rotation_down": 62.62, "downward_expansion": 85.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.264333, 4.521636, 4.874141, 5.266084 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.39, "trend_reference": 6.002807, "distance_from_trend": -0.268675, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.32816, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.574948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.146852, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.484028, "excess_performance": -0.671481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.268675, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234508, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.574948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.521469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.484028, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.097311, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8263792, "relative_activity": 1.334185, "balance": 1.097311, "dry_up": 1.310017, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171683, "annualized_volatility": 0.689603, "from_high_reference": -0.634526, "from_low_reference": 0.191316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.002807, "fair_value_reference": 10.32816, "structural_low": 3.685, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.050209, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.061379, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.220264, "worst_return": -0.342015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.122506, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.115099, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.069981, "worst_return": -0.404568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.162899, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.22611, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.746363, "worst_return": -0.543998, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10929, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018349, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.154901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"relative_strength": -54.88324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.763182, "energy": 53.981582, "activity_lines": [ 4.551667, 4.715636, 5.089249, 5.528368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.05, "volume": 10490625, "typical_volume": 6174063.65, "trend": 6.171192, "fair_value": 10.43787, "relative_strength": -54.355895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.252777, "energy": 65.210498, "activity_lines": [ 4.302, 4.578636, 4.961662, 5.380999 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.39, "volume": 8263792, "typical_volume": 6193887.0, "trend": 6.002807, "fair_value": 10.32816, "relative_strength": -52.146852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.523514, "energy": 60.324206, "activity_lines": [ 4.264333, 4.521636, 4.874141, 5.266084 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }