{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28092df6-65ac-4594-9fe2-12399601e2d9", "symbol": "MLPRX", "name": "Parx Materials N.V.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.918, "architecture_energy": 52.992, "architecture_maturity": 6.706, "architecture_confidence": 47.231, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.24, "rotation_up": 17.5, "upward_expansion": 18.77, "deceleration": 46.31, "rotation_down": 68.13, "downward_expansion": 60.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.383333, 0.404764, 0.44501, 0.450974 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.4, "trend_reference": 0.425, "distance_from_trend": -0.058824, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.302173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323745, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.753868, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.531646, "excess_performance": 1.478334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216603, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320657, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.127539, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.729284, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.531646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.186074, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8185, "relative_activity": 0.219125, "balance": 2.186074, "dry_up": 0.518063, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138846, "annualized_volatility": 1.73905, "from_high_reference": -0.42446, "from_low_reference": 1.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.425, "fair_value_reference": 0.302173, "structural_low": 0.172, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.02027, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.001645, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.125, "worst_return": -0.289474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018968, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.055556, "worst_return": -0.340909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049499, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.525641, "worst_return": -0.681818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.331818, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.37896, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.640351, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02459, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123853, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.538462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.907407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.338129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.326531, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.39, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12965.15, "trend": 0.463567, "fair_value": 1.143026, "relative_strength": -31.461503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.752312, "energy": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 7891, "typical_volume": 44565.7, "trend": 0.412533, "fair_value": 0.302558, "relative_strength": 18.564249, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.560586, "energy": 43.020262, "activity_lines": [ 0.4136, 0.436982, 0.465743, 0.45743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.33, "volume": 55189, "typical_volume": 42127.0, "trend": 0.417533, "fair_value": 0.302109, "relative_strength": -4.058502, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.327163, "energy": 70.315033, "activity_lines": [ 0.381467, 0.412509, 0.45199, 0.452105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4, "volume": 8185, "typical_volume": 37353.05, "trend": 0.425, "fair_value": 0.302173, "relative_strength": 12.753868, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.917915, "energy": 52.992229, "activity_lines": [ 0.383333, 0.404764, 0.44501, 0.450974 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }