{ "ticker": { "uuid": "280d881a-ccd1-47f9-b55d-05104a68154f", "symbol": "GOLD1NN", "name": "GoldMining Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.741, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.002, "architecture_energy": 61.498, "architecture_maturity": 69.344, "architecture_confidence": 63.162, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.8, "rotation_up": 29.97, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 42.99, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.0, 19.0, 20.714286, 22.032258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.0, "trend_reference": 22.466667, "distance_from_trend": -0.154303, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.987179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.330288, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055556, "excess_performance": 0.110222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01506, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094685, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.464349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398927, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040891, "annualized_volatility": 0.938922, "from_high_reference": -0.366667, "from_low_reference": 0.055556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.466667, "fair_value_reference": 20.987179, "structural_low": 18.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": 0.00946, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.611111, "worst_return": -0.132986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.102757, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04712, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.132986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005831, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.195202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055556, "worst_return": -0.043894, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.260322, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.217639, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.260322, "worst_return": 0.260322, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-03-04", "end": "2022-05-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-06-03", "end": "2022-07-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-22", "end": "2022-11-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.132986, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-02-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-03-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 22.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 22.0, "volume": 0, 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56.768608, "energy": 63.352371, "activity_lines": [ 29.0, 29.0, 26.690476, 24.548387 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 19.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 6.6, "trend": 22.1, "fair_value": 21.198718, "relative_strength": -13.006625, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.587765, "energy": 23.940838, "activity_lines": [ 25.666667, 27.181818, 26.204762, 24.350538 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 19.0, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 7.3, "trend": 22.133333, "fair_value": 21.179487, "relative_strength": -13.150542, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -30.5967, "energy": 47.286584, "activity_lines": [ 23.0, 25.545455, 25.714286, 24.150538 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 19.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.3, "trend": 22.166667, "fair_value": 21.160256, "relative_strength": -9.814538, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.331018, "energy": 75.961277, "activity_lines": [ 19.0, 20.818182, 23.704762, 23.329032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.3, "trend": 22.3, "fair_value": 21.083333, "relative_strength": -10.340318, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.980612, "energy": 70.730589, "activity_lines": [ 19.0, 20.090909, 23.190476, 23.11828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.3, "trend": 22.333333, "fair_value": 21.064103, "relative_strength": -9.401095, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.567942, "energy": 57.943438, "activity_lines": [ 19.0, 19.545455, 22.671429, 22.905376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.3, "trend": 22.366667, "fair_value": 21.044872, "relative_strength": -9.397037, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.039598, "energy": 57.002548, "activity_lines": [ 19.0, 19.181818, 22.147619, 22.690323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.25, "trend": 22.4, "fair_value": 21.025641, "relative_strength": -8.899788, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.988762, "energy": 54.432668, "activity_lines": [ 19.0, 19.0, 21.619048, 22.473118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.95, "trend": 22.433333, "fair_value": 21.00641, "relative_strength": -9.473353, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.5755, "energy": 62.880926, "activity_lines": [ 19.0, 19.0, 21.142857, 22.253763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.95, "trend": 22.466667, "fair_value": 20.987179, "relative_strength": -9.330288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.002484, "energy": 61.497953, "activity_lines": [ 19.0, 19.0, 20.714286, 22.032258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }