{ "ticker": { "uuid": "280e14eb-41cb-464b-a8a3-cd8c63c6b937", "symbol": "YGLD", "name": "SIMPLIFY GOLD STRATEGY PLUS INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.515, "architecture_energy": 48.164, "architecture_maturity": 69.673, "architecture_confidence": 72.024, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.98, "rotation_up": 26.41, "upward_expansion": 19.27, "deceleration": 66.63, "rotation_down": 51.62, "downward_expansion": 73.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.542632, 32.449587, 34.218119, 36.400793 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.04, "trend_reference": 39.5244, "distance_from_trend": -0.113459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.243015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.948811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254719, "excess_performance": -0.380344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057683, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189488, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145405, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254719, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47534, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65444, "relative_activity": 0.751749, "balance": 0.47534, "dry_up": 0.602482, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070119, "annualized_volatility": 0.385893, "from_high_reference": -0.383463, "from_low_reference": 0.226895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.5244, "fair_value_reference": 33.243015, "structural_low": 30.271619, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.022854, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000532, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.090912, "worst_return": -0.045204, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"fair_value": 33.246242, "relative_strength": -24.259776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.043465, "energy": 69.327046, "activity_lines": [ 31.60756, 32.515963, 34.86308, 37.280199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.1685, "volume": 73662, "typical_volume": 90359.45, "trend": 39.775416, "fair_value": 33.22236, "relative_strength": -25.447645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.990394, "energy": 65.04276, "activity_lines": [ 31.408043, 32.074749, 34.318775, 36.706303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.04, "volume": 65444, "typical_volume": 87055.7, "trend": 39.5244, "fair_value": 33.243015, "relative_strength": -18.948811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.515267, "energy": 48.163533, "activity_lines": [ 32.542632, 32.449587, 34.218119, 36.400793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }