{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28161d85-aad1-41d6-a798-7572e5710556", "symbol": "600736", "name": "Suzhou New District Hi-Tech Industrial Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.607, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.237, "architecture_energy": 58.198, "architecture_maturity": 8.351, "architecture_confidence": 77.988, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.7, "rotation_up": 10.6, "upward_expansion": 12.26, "deceleration": 38.33, "rotation_down": 65.81, "downward_expansion": 85.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.427333, 6.615081, 7.021639, 7.022557 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.65, "trend_reference": 7.032483, "distance_from_trend": -0.054388, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.520222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.562507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043165, "excess_performance": 3.8e-05, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054388, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041181, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.63997, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025625, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043165, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114559457, "relative_activity": 0.47758, "balance": 0.285324, "dry_up": 0.547362, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114965, "annualized_volatility": 0.678604, "from_high_reference": -0.373233, "from_low_reference": 0.233766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.032483, "fair_value_reference": 5.520222, "structural_low": 5.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014862, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003611, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.635158, "worst_return": -0.040268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022988, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.041493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155887, "worst_return": -0.012739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.082954, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12766, "worst_return": -0.080679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.323307, 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"end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008784, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086093, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097674, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", 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11.773632, "energy": 11.60507, "activity_lines": [ 7.067963, 7.363307, 7.336937, 7.206218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.97, "volume": 164364297, "typical_volume": 234047799.1, "trend": 7.027149, "fair_value": 5.487566, "relative_strength": 6.462778, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.086677, "energy": 13.411426, "activity_lines": [ 6.984997, 7.228861, 7.319011, 7.205241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.24, "volume": 169289517, "typical_volume": 236138969.2, "trend": 7.036816, "fair_value": 5.495683, "relative_strength": 1.082672, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.445235, "energy": 23.633849, "activity_lines": [ 6.675425, 6.983144, 7.231751, 7.154457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.97, "volume": 109319785, "typical_volume": 235101222.15, "trend": 7.041483, "fair_value": 5.50144, "relative_strength": -4.573293, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.080379, "energy": 46.831868, "activity_lines": [ 6.387788, 6.754153, 7.123015, 7.08563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.45, "volume": 132025479, "typical_volume": 237716071.15, "trend": 7.036149, "fair_value": 5.511047, "relative_strength": 2.456657, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.427867, "energy": 44.482453, "activity_lines": [ 6.361497, 6.656435, 7.062804, 7.04747 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.65, "volume": 114559457, "typical_volume": 239875032.5, "trend": 7.032483, "fair_value": 5.520222, "relative_strength": 2.562507, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.237444, "energy": 58.197706, "activity_lines": [ 6.427333, 6.615081, 7.021639, 7.022557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }