{ "ticker": { "uuid": "281a543f-940f-4bb1-a1db-0e086f0401e8", "symbol": "TKC", "name": "Turnkey Communication Services Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.548, "architecture_energy": 17.919, "architecture_maturity": 33.741, "architecture_confidence": 60.043, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.3, "rotation_up": 32.75, "upward_expansion": 57.65, "deceleration": 69.56, "rotation_down": 25.99, "downward_expansion": 16.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.89, 8.888182, 8.93502, 8.73139 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.85, "trend_reference": 8.53651, "distance_from_trend": 0.036723, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.490703, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.229812, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.142962, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053867, "excess_performance": -0.138459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036723, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00299, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.229812, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053867, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.223365, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180700, "relative_activity": 0.692072, "balance": 2.223365, "dry_up": 1.491383, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0691, "annualized_volatility": 0.335454, "from_high_reference": -0.165094, "from_low_reference": 0.258785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.53651, "fair_value_reference": 11.490703, "structural_low": 7.030588, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.041776, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031985, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.041176, "worst_return": -0.304147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.202675, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.191908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.021053, "worst_return": -0.384298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.266572, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.352727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.115789, "worst_return": -0.417355, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 9.35, "volume": 779800, "typical_volume": 242090.0, "trend": 8.527078, "fair_value": 11.781983, "relative_strength": -11.441304, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.542101, "energy": 30.921064, "activity_lines": [ 8.816667, 9.075455, 8.859577, 8.669815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.9, "volume": 409900, "typical_volume": 257040.0, "trend": 8.534059, "fair_value": 11.682297, "relative_strength": -15.31353, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.38836, "energy": 19.588801, "activity_lines": [ 8.843333, 9.020909, 8.895207, 8.693875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.8, "volume": 187200, "typical_volume": 258625.0, "trend": 8.534451, "fair_value": 11.583476, "relative_strength": -14.724633, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.041121, "energy": 12.795625, "activity_lines": [ 8.87, 8.943636, 8.915667, 8.711032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.85, "volume": 180700, "typical_volume": 261100.0, "trend": 8.53651, "fair_value": 11.490703, "relative_strength": -13.142962, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.548374, "energy": 17.919489, "activity_lines": [ 8.89, 8.888182, 8.93502, 8.73139 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }