{ "ticker": { "uuid": "281bdfb4-e28b-4716-a327-234c25dfce02", "symbol": "IFSW", "name": "iShares STOXX World Equity Multifactor UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.995, "architecture_energy": 74.479, "architecture_maturity": 74.435, "architecture_confidence": 82.214, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 66.47, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.12, "rotation_down": 26.85, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.081467, 13.961164, 13.6662, 13.323647 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.364, "trend_reference": 12.909467, "distance_from_trend": 0.112672, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.700756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.342335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.509068, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.182417, "excess_performance": 0.011525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051339, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.342335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011629, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.182417, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.744853, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22055, "relative_activity": 1.691594, "balance": 2.744853, "dry_up": 1.554322, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016998, "annualized_volatility": 0.103026, "from_high_reference": -0.004022, "from_low_reference": 0.283187 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.909467, "fair_value_reference": 10.700756, "structural_low": 11.648, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.009698, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 5.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.063815, "worst_return": -0.076694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.024998, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.005477, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.128078, "worst_return": -0.04583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061255, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.008175, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.148769, "worst_return": -0.069423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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80.014556, "energy": 88.93028, "activity_lines": [ 13.7288, 13.596655, 13.173714, 12.898796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.98, "volume": 6701, "typical_volume": 12812.35, "trend": 12.647933, "fair_value": 10.555949, "relative_strength": -1.238683, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.024653, "energy": 90.654891, "activity_lines": [ 13.826133, 13.695855, 13.283752, 12.989054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.88, "volume": 8132, "typical_volume": 12076.75, "trend": 12.711333, "fair_value": 10.591321, "relative_strength": -0.538872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.435657, "energy": 79.504605, "activity_lines": [ 13.8632, 13.754145, 13.376181, 13.068542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.01, "volume": 23977, "typical_volume": 12866.5, "trend": 12.776933, "fair_value": 10.626756, "relative_strength": 0.555053, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.909206, "energy": 75.247447, "activity_lines": [ 13.923333, 13.820945, 13.473248, 13.152327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.908, "volume": 26897, "typical_volume": 12780.2, "trend": 12.8396, "fair_value": 10.66241, "relative_strength": -0.826836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.623054, "energy": 66.659828, "activity_lines": [ 13.934, 13.854327, 13.552286, 13.225299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.364, "volume": 22055, "typical_volume": 13038.0, "trend": 12.909467, "fair_value": 10.700756, "relative_strength": -0.509068, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.994775, "energy": 74.479357, "activity_lines": [ 14.081467, 13.961164, 13.6662, 13.323647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }