{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2824a0cc-7fd7-449c-b19b-408c8a6ae69b", "symbol": "VEE", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.932, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.266, "architecture_energy": 23.697, "architecture_maturity": 58.809, "architecture_confidence": 81.714, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.54, "rotation_up": 28.4, "upward_expansion": 57.18, "deceleration": 88.13, "rotation_down": 29.52, "downward_expansion": 18.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.758666, 50.049097, 49.68396, 48.89707 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.639999, "trend_reference": 48.035487, "distance_from_trend": 0.054221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.804315, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305009, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.998976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076988, "excess_performance": -0.043433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054221, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037628, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305009, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076988, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.470553, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169100, "relative_activity": 0.677308, "balance": 1.470553, "dry_up": 1.081349, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035284, "annualized_volatility": 0.203484, "from_high_reference": -0.02821, "from_low_reference": 0.231678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.035487, "fair_value_reference": 38.804315, "structural_low": 43.209999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003661, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014228, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.098916, "worst_return": -0.018895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026863, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060855, "worst_return": -0.020918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.085085, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137335, "worst_return": 0.010409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001665, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009723, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152297, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075347, "active": false 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48.957159, 48.724651, 47.60832, 47.110642 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 49.986469, "volume": 124000, "typical_volume": 344580.0, "trend": 46.55109, "fair_value": 37.801159, "relative_strength": -0.952417, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.289248, "energy": 48.265613, "activity_lines": [ 49.278277, 49.038589, 47.883754, 47.341848 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 52.0, "volume": 49400, "typical_volume": 319820.0, "trend": 46.808237, "fair_value": 37.944247, "relative_strength": 2.903131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.268013, "energy": 75.482571, "activity_lines": [ 50.254583, 49.628323, 48.335637, 47.69339 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 49.93, "volume": 77000, "typical_volume": 303300.0, "trend": 46.973391, "fair_value": 38.070719, "relative_strength": -1.135474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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38.451574, "relative_strength": -4.109155, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.245596, "energy": 38.026178, "activity_lines": [ 50.280666, 50.176075, 49.294883, 48.52062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.939999, "volume": 237700, "typical_volume": 266950.0, "trend": 47.755153, "fair_value": 38.560519, "relative_strength": -3.800879, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.160782, "energy": 26.391045, "activity_lines": [ 49.709999, 50.008522, 49.374718, 48.607305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.5, "volume": 204000, "typical_volume": 257905.0, "trend": 47.893487, "fair_value": 38.676939, "relative_strength": -2.191365, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.278807, "energy": 19.718203, "activity_lines": [ 49.529999, 49.930744, 49.486791, 48.719875 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.639999, "volume": 169100, "typical_volume": 249665.0, "trend": 48.035487, "fair_value": 38.804315, "relative_strength": -2.998976, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.26552, "energy": 23.697064, "activity_lines": [ 49.758666, 50.049097, 49.68396, 48.89707 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }