{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28420682-a73c-427f-99cd-df460d4de562", "symbol": "CWST", "name": "Casella Waste Systems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.544, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.039, "architecture_energy": 8.711, "architecture_maturity": 20.985, "architecture_confidence": 50.578, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.99, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 30.25, "deceleration": 63.26, "rotation_down": 33.83, "downward_expansion": 23.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.818667, 91.961091, 89.78119, 89.216323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 89.41, "trend_reference": 90.745, "distance_from_trend": -0.014712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 96.838878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.412175, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145628, "excess_performance": -0.333082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039118, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124003, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145628, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.937169, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3351415, "relative_activity": 0.917218, "balance": 0.937169, "dry_up": 0.947512, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074362, "annualized_volatility": 0.408652, "from_high_reference": -0.171831, "from_low_reference": 0.207427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.745, "fair_value_reference": 96.838878, "structural_low": 74.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.039245, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009176, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.139622, "worst_return": -0.104078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.029162, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083505, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.131297, "worst_return": -0.210986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.111521, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.074168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135644, "worst_return": -0.096121, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03413, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060821, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101813, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063171, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 95.7, "volume": 3035109, "typical_volume": 3808446.5, "trend": 91.786, "fair_value": 96.658173, "relative_strength": -7.891452, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.512616, "energy": 51.50122, "activity_lines": [ 95.595333, 92.501636, 89.086762, 89.588409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.39, "volume": 4026794, "typical_volume": 3749694.45, "trend": 91.394667, "fair_value": 96.717981, "relative_strength": -11.860341, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.194879, "energy": 35.853533, "activity_lines": [ 93.969333, 92.365818, 89.295286, 89.433828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.71, "volume": 3435108, "typical_volume": 3671357.5, "trend": 91.096667, "fair_value": 96.77234, "relative_strength": -11.381902, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.061966, "energy": 17.830722, "activity_lines": [ 92.289333, 92.211636, 89.556381, 89.32514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.41, "volume": 3351415, "typical_volume": 3653890.6, "trend": 90.745, "fair_value": 96.838878, "relative_strength": -15.412175, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.039439, "energy": 8.711194, "activity_lines": [ 90.818667, 91.961091, 89.78119, 89.216323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }