{ "ticker": { "uuid": "284d9d39-8612-4c6d-95dd-6f3f2fb11c3d", "symbol": "200045", "name": "Shenzhen Textile (Holdings) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.173, "architecture_energy": 52.683, "architecture_maturity": 54.967, "architecture_confidence": 89.542, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 24.81, "upward_expansion": 8.56, "deceleration": 59.53, "rotation_down": 54.11, "downward_expansion": 81.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.783333, 3.810079, 3.993032, 4.146952 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.88, "trend_reference": 4.330987, "distance_from_trend": -0.10413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.798978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021327, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.407539, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.172708, "excess_performance": -0.180108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021327, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029398, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172708, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.061764, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177109, "relative_activity": 0.578758, "balance": 1.061764, "dry_up": 1.236741, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059728, "annualized_volatility": 0.230644, "from_high_reference": -0.237721, "from_low_reference": 0.086835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.330987, "fair_value_reference": 3.798978, "structural_low": 3.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.004089, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.035968, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.123209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011952, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.030608, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.096061, "worst_return": -0.219908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014467, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017109, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.493631, "worst_return": -0.144971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054008, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044776, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.140035, "energy": 87.783172, "activity_lines": [ 3.926957, 4.071137, 4.250927, 4.352109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.76, "volume": 311350, "typical_volume": 327473.2, "trend": 4.414987, "fair_value": 3.795395, "relative_strength": -21.781953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.879235, "energy": 86.558605, "activity_lines": [ 3.836, 3.994354, 4.190691, 4.30869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.65, "volume": 172500, "typical_volume": 324723.2, "trend": 4.39232, "fair_value": 3.795572, "relative_strength": -16.156893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.767751, "energy": 90.906214, "activity_lines": [ 3.743333, 3.909617, 4.124359, 4.259336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.67, "volume": 479900, "typical_volume": 301615.7, "trend": 4.36932, "fair_value": 3.795938, "relative_strength": -15.657494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.397907, "energy": 87.26026, "activity_lines": [ 3.694, 3.842743, 4.06479, 4.212735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.82, "volume": 684339, "typical_volume": 319742.65, "trend": 4.35032, "fair_value": 3.797389, "relative_strength": -10.575111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.711577, "energy": 60.680794, "activity_lines": [ 3.730667, 3.816466, 4.024077, 4.177295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.88, "volume": 177109, "typical_volume": 306015.6, "trend": 4.330987, "fair_value": 3.798978, "relative_strength": -13.407539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.173018, "energy": 52.683216, "activity_lines": [ 3.783333, 3.810079, 3.993032, 4.146952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }