{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28579c85-954e-46ae-a35d-519626735bcd", "symbol": "EMCS", "name": "XTRACKERS MSCI EMERGING MARKETS CLIMATE SELECTION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.871, "architecture_energy": 20.359, "architecture_maturity": 62.78, "architecture_confidence": 91.436, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.48, "rotation_up": 22.48, "upward_expansion": 54.34, "deceleration": 90.92, "rotation_down": 31.27, "downward_expansion": 18.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.082193, 44.647153, 44.402247, 43.208195 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.4842, "trend_reference": 41.70832, "distance_from_trend": 0.066555, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.785838, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.493468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.584539, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13284, "excess_performance": 0.007215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066555, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086656, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.493468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035845, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125364, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13284, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 16.134491, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85208, "relative_activity": 1.176397, "balance": 16.134491, "dry_up": 0.531528, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058771, "annualized_volatility": 0.305671, "from_high_reference": -0.100421, "from_low_reference": 0.444981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.70832, "fair_value_reference": 29.785838, "structural_low": 35.47381, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006102, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.008121, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.156712, "worst_return": -0.053967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.064094, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.00493, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.280909, "worst_return": -0.010263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.140471, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.056816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255821, "worst_return": -0.012344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069067, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013112, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065682, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037978, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.18281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00147, "active": false }, 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.508439, "energy": 22.368243, "activity_lines": [ 44.181053, 44.956391, 44.099559, 42.828116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.0795, "volume": 27684, "typical_volume": 69278.5, "trend": 41.46216, "fair_value": 29.647563, "relative_strength": 6.558823, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.016574, "energy": 19.498379, "activity_lines": [ 43.9983, 44.768232, 44.248564, 43.013224 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.4842, "volume": 85208, "typical_volume": 72431.3, "trend": 41.70832, "fair_value": 29.785838, "relative_strength": 3.584539, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.870608, "energy": 20.358862, "activity_lines": [ 44.082193, 44.647153, 44.402247, 43.208195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }