{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "286283f8-712b-44e7-967a-0e54e042c252",
    "symbol": "MIVB",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI Europe SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR (C)",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.281,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 76.121,
    "architecture_energy": 54.675,
    "architecture_maturity": 55.816,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.035,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.69,
        "rotation_up": 48.09,
        "upward_expansion": 75.43,
        "deceleration": 67.64,
        "rotation_down": 28.69,
        "downward_expansion": 13.43
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        92.224665,
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        90.779714,
        89.346925
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 93.57,
    "trend_reference": 88.011667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.063155,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 83.03,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126942,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.248194,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.081859,
    "excess_performance": 0.017219,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063155,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029673,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126942,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056692,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002482,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013798,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081859,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.524697,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 26671,
      "relative_activity": 1.227947,
      "balance": 0.524697,
      "dry_up": 0.726163,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018785,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.151987,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004574,
      "from_low_reference": 0.201155
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 88.011667,
      "fair_value_reference": 83.03,
      "structural_low": 77.900002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 27,
        "median_return": -0.008087,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001664,
        "regime_survival": 0.703704,
        "best_return": 0.070897,
        "worst_return": -0.084956,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.003361,
        "positive_rate": 0.545455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023755,
        "regime_survival": 0.272727,
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        "worst_return": -0.063615,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.038196,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008508,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
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        "worst_return": -0.150156,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.032127,
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        "worst_return": -0.086835,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "return": -0.039007,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "close": 86.699997,
        "volume": 15656,
        "typical_volume": 29419.8,
        "trend": 85.077,
        "fair_value": 81.419487,
        "relative_strength": 1.178013,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.574012,
        "energy": 30.019747,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.644666,
          84.974546,
          85.306572,
          85.22542
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 87.230003,
        "volume": 44849,
        "typical_volume": 30025.6,
        "trend": 85.168333,
        "fair_value": 81.504295,
        "relative_strength": 1.628031,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.509474,
        "energy": 37.673853,
        "activity_lines": [
          87.058667,
          85.458728,
          85.467572,
          85.364323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 86.809998,
        "volume": 46155,
        "typical_volume": 31908.9,
        "trend": 85.217333,
        "fair_value": 81.583718,
        "relative_strength": 2.793769,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.030412,
        "energy": 42.794112,
        "activity_lines": [
          87.018,
          85.888909,
          85.574762,
          85.470237
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 89.75,
        "volume": 26829,
        "typical_volume": 32209.0,
        "trend": 85.326667,
        "fair_value": 81.689936,
        "relative_strength": 2.295812,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.772577,
        "energy": 49.517399,
        "activity_lines": [
          87.853333,
          86.815091,
          85.951286,
          85.762667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 89.589996,
        "volume": 43863,
        "typical_volume": 33010.5,
        "trend": 85.475333,
        "fair_value": 81.795256,
        "relative_strength": 1.259187,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.344673,
        "energy": 51.881101,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.569332,
          87.596181,
          86.291762,
          86.03772
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 89.540001,
        "volume": 2299,
        "typical_volume": 31883.45,
        "trend": 85.691333,
        "fair_value": 81.905128,
        "relative_strength": 2.602251,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.821629,
        "energy": 58.922784,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.077333,
          88.189636,
          86.617286,
          86.299957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 91.050003,
        "volume": 8719,
        "typical_volume": 30717.8,
        "trend": 85.928,
        "fair_value": 82.018333,
        "relative_strength": 4.83172,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.979463,
        "energy": 70.65702,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.899334,
          88.874,
          87.080381,
          86.645678
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 91.57,
        "volume": 2690,
        "typical_volume": 29177.65,
        "trend": 86.254667,
        "fair_value": 82.149231,
        "relative_strength": 3.923527,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.59391,
        "energy": 75.271528,
        "activity_lines": [
          90.64,
          89.497636,
          87.572762,
          87.009678
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 91.620003,
        "volume": 718,
        "typical_volume": 27264.15,
        "trend": 86.505667,
        "fair_value": 82.268846,
        "relative_strength": 5.206161,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.820982,
        "energy": 77.736292,
        "activity_lines": [
          91.080001,
          90.015455,
          88.048381,
          87.355828
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 93.690002,
        "volume": 822,
        "typical_volume": 26260.05,
        "trend": 86.833,
        "fair_value": 82.416282,
        "relative_strength": 2.912106,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.226468,
        "energy": 86.650531,
        "activity_lines": [
          92.085335,
          90.857637,
          88.696715,
          87.819334
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 92.540001,
        "volume": 17435,
        "typical_volume": 26124.15,
        "trend": 87.139334,
        "fair_value": 82.541795,
        "relative_strength": 4.433309,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.748842,
        "energy": 81.678409,
        "activity_lines": [
          92.434002,
          91.364001,
          89.202477,
          88.187527
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 91.599998,
        "volume": 15871,
        "typical_volume": 25777.65,
        "trend": 87.381667,
        "fair_value": 82.660256,
        "relative_strength": 4.248201,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.886395,
        "energy": 77.694298,
        "activity_lines": [
          92.269334,
          91.593273,
          89.597429,
          88.475312
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 91.139999,
        "volume": 13827,
        "typical_volume": 24209.35,
        "trend": 87.600667,
        "fair_value": 82.768077,
        "relative_strength": 2.554716,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.402403,
        "energy": 62.419866,
        "activity_lines": [
          91.914666,
          91.659455,
          89.933619,
          88.717785
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 91.589996,
        "volume": 6720,
        "typical_volume": 21605.65,
        "trend": 87.807667,
        "fair_value": 82.892756,
        "relative_strength": 0.85692,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.710373,
        "energy": 46.602114,
        "activity_lines": [
          91.738665,
          91.728727,
          90.281952,
          88.975161
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 93.57,
        "volume": 26671,
        "typical_volume": 21720.0,
        "trend": 88.011667,
        "fair_value": 83.03,
        "relative_strength": 0.248194,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.120814,
        "energy": 54.675183,
        "activity_lines": [
          92.224665,
          92.124545,
          90.779714,
          89.346925
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}