{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2863ac64-da9e-4a35-a672-ad62e63fa151", "symbol": "VREX", "name": "Varex Imaging Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.392, "architecture_energy": 23.36, "architecture_maturity": 10.108, "architecture_confidence": 57.469, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.07, "rotation_up": 40.41, "upward_expansion": 35.33, "deceleration": 31.98, "rotation_down": 18.3, "downward_expansion": 46.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.448, 11.096182, 10.865381, 11.029677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.41, "trend_reference": 11.529667, "distance_from_trend": 0.076354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.469808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07868, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.995501, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.113571, "excess_performance": -0.301025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076354, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07868, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179804, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.132134, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1677241, "relative_activity": 0.897687, "balance": 1.132134, "dry_up": 0.93072, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08622, "annualized_volatility": 0.445331, "from_high_reference": -0.147957, "from_low_reference": 0.365222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.529667, "fair_value_reference": 13.469808, "structural_low": 9.0901, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.010548, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.000908, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.127007, "worst_return": -0.122834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.036176, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.05783, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.033867, "worst_return": -0.236245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.246885, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.230691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.051862, "worst_return": -0.424818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.229252, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.436777, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.140512, "worst_return": -0.27472, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.356143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.209184, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109476, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06223, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025359, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", 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"down", "direction": -41.071491, "energy": 24.198369, "activity_lines": [ 10.473333, 10.404182, 10.739048, 11.229699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.61, "volume": 2616537, "typical_volume": 1787566.35, "trend": 11.689333, "fair_value": 13.833077, "relative_strength": -18.594883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.90802, "energy": 18.629708, "activity_lines": [ 10.531333, 10.408182, 10.684857, 11.157978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.05, "volume": 1806036, "typical_volume": 1820347.3, "trend": 11.667333, "fair_value": 13.75641, "relative_strength": -16.765626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.901663, "energy": 17.006338, "activity_lines": [ 10.710667, 10.527091, 10.686429, 11.116731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.55, "volume": 2106326, "typical_volume": 1858103.25, "trend": 11.609333, "fair_value": 13.675321, "relative_strength": -17.276152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.880798, "energy": 16.542241, "activity_lines": [ 10.659333, 10.565273, 10.652476, 11.044645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.92, "volume": 1782799, "typical_volume": 1870628.7, "trend": 11.579, "fair_value": 13.597564, "relative_strength": -13.172344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.701615, "energy": 14.530844, "activity_lines": [ 10.764, 10.657636, 10.666238, 11.000172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.19, "volume": 1389471, "typical_volume": 1853613.8, "trend": 11.563667, "fair_value": 13.523846, "relative_strength": -11.811995, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.899502, "energy": 10.383742, "activity_lines": [ 10.932667, 10.776182, 10.708619, 10.975075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.41, "volume": 1677241, "typical_volume": 1868402.55, "trend": 11.529667, "fair_value": 13.469808, "relative_strength": -6.995501, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.391784, "energy": 23.359901, "activity_lines": [ 11.448, 11.096182, 10.865381, 11.029677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }