{ "ticker": { "uuid": "286c2f00-9c35-4246-8e89-99c589b493c2", "symbol": "SCLX", "name": "Scilex Holding Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.31, "architecture_energy": 25.842, "architecture_maturity": 49.681, "architecture_confidence": 68.865, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.28, "rotation_up": 36.51, "upward_expansion": 64.92, "deceleration": 83.58, "rotation_down": 24.57, "downward_expansion": 14.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.219333, 7.363799, 6.513077, 6.059302 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.95, "trend_reference": 5.713752, "distance_from_trend": 0.216364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.006063, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.614019, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.864619, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.314688, "excess_performance": 0.127234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.216364, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170043, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.614019, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214232, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268646, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205986, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.314688, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.026747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 260079, "relative_activity": 0.495813, "balance": 2.026747, "dry_up": 0.773725, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231418, "annualized_volatility": 1.326863, "from_high_reference": -0.674301, "from_low_reference": 1.657548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.713752, "fair_value_reference": 18.006063, "structural_low": 2.615193, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.152657, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.136232, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.644707, "worst_return": -0.44163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.453749, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.540251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146396, "worst_return": -0.620187, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.537725, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.604993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.297394, "worst_return": -0.840312, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.658798, "energy": 74.381508, "activity_lines": [ 8.349333, 7.25161, 6.174445, 5.862655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.84, "volume": 494117, "typical_volume": 499649.95, "trend": 5.797279, "fair_value": 19.22359, "relative_strength": -25.352834, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.47432, "energy": 59.446681, "activity_lines": [ 7.942, 7.345718, 6.296733, 5.925756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.665, "volume": 545026, "typical_volume": 519047.6, "trend": 5.747756, "fair_value": 18.518917, "relative_strength": -27.090287, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.830359, "energy": 41.033778, "activity_lines": [ 7.518333, 7.354854, 6.394927, 5.981738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.95, "volume": 260079, "typical_volume": 524550.2, "trend": 5.713752, "fair_value": 18.006063, "relative_strength": -26.864619, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.309595, "energy": 25.842122, "activity_lines": [ 7.219333, 7.363799, 6.513077, 6.059302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }