{ "ticker": { "uuid": "286df395-5791-4f5f-a8d7-c777105cfda5", "symbol": "SIX2", "name": "Sixt SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 86.853, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.594, "architecture_energy": 43.266, "architecture_maturity": 33.944, "architecture_confidence": 77.656, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.48, "rotation_up": 56.94, "upward_expansion": 84.02, "deceleration": 46.1, "rotation_down": 18.93, "downward_expansion": 10.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.013333, 70.26804, 69.821925, 68.992513 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 71.5, "trend_reference": 68.141047, "distance_from_trend": 0.049294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 75.407257, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051815, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.806757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060831, "excess_performance": -0.113416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087374, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061209, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 18.324675, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153, "relative_activity": 0.476116, "balance": 18.324675, "dry_up": 0.357087, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051254, "annualized_volatility": 0.327157, "from_high_reference": -0.239766, "from_low_reference": 0.231697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.141047, "fair_value_reference": 75.407257, "structural_low": 58.049999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.07634, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.05777, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135556, "worst_return": -0.131147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.174517, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.156944, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.106272, "worst_return": -0.257534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.194839, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.127112, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.147834, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034713, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03599, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058653, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.250731, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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"relative_strength": -22.025219, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.487967, "energy": 17.79525, "activity_lines": [ 69.2456, 69.550111, 68.855619, 68.312031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 70.449997, "volume": 153, "typical_volume": 355.1, "trend": 68.164381, "fair_value": 75.936631, "relative_strength": -20.597827, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.908361, "energy": 18.494506, "activity_lines": [ 69.513333, 69.736878, 69.097612, 68.46121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 306.3, "trend": 68.164381, "fair_value": 75.739756, "relative_strength": -21.365569, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.579826, "energy": 17.329547, "activity_lines": [ 69.606666, 69.734103, 69.251748, 68.563508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.5, "volume": 153, "typical_volume": 313.95, "trend": 68.186047, "fair_value": 75.555275, "relative_strength": -18.429307, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.140333, "energy": 42.908295, "activity_lines": [ 70.493333, 70.022602, 69.557075, 68.778709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.5, "volume": 153, "typical_volume": 321.35, "trend": 68.141047, "fair_value": 75.407257, "relative_strength": -19.806757, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.594299, "energy": 43.266143, "activity_lines": [ 71.013333, 70.26804, 69.821925, 68.992513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }