{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2894b7c7-e5e6-422f-8f11-56cd5e8507b8", "symbol": "LSR", "name": "Lodestar Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.068, "architecture_energy": 76.384, "architecture_maturity": 32.596, "architecture_confidence": 92.92, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.4, "rotation_up": 23.98, "upward_expansion": 19.36, "deceleration": 37.68, "rotation_down": 59.69, "downward_expansion": 95.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.009, 0.009418, 0.012262, 0.013695 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.009, "trend_reference": 0.014533, "distance_from_trend": -0.380734, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.028532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.684565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.353599, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181818, "excess_performance": -0.245524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.380734, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129741, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.684565, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309588, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.533536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.758706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16303461, "relative_activity": 0.196478, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.326237, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.269231, "annualized_volatility": 1.182723, "from_high_reference": -0.847458, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.014533, "fair_value_reference": 0.028532, "structural_low": 0.008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.184211, "directional_follow_through": 0.394737, "median_excess_return": -0.034759, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 1.833333, "worst_return": -0.470588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.068196, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.571429, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.285714, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.328439, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.533333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.833333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.014967, "fair_value": 0.031788, "relative_strength": -52.581025, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.78211, "energy": 64.21807, "activity_lines": [ 0.009867, 0.011673, 0.014948, 0.015196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.009, "volume": 31107227, "typical_volume": 104939111.15, "trend": 0.014867, "fair_value": 0.031026, "relative_strength": -52.187925, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.628105, "energy": 71.521312, "activity_lines": [ 0.009467, 0.0108, 0.014243, 0.014811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.009, "volume": 7534412, "typical_volume": 103192625.85, "trend": 0.014767, "fair_value": 0.030263, "relative_strength": -51.648416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.706361, "energy": 67.524962, "activity_lines": [ 0.0092, 0.010164, 0.013562, 0.014432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.009, "volume": 53337788, "typical_volume": 99278725.7, "trend": 0.014667, "fair_value": 0.029295, "relative_strength": -52.335194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.809938, "energy": 80.069067, "activity_lines": [ 0.009067, 0.009709, 0.012895, 0.01406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.009, "volume": 16303461, "typical_volume": 82978578.15, "trend": 0.014533, "fair_value": 0.028532, "relative_strength": -53.353599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.06772, "energy": 76.384154, "activity_lines": [ 0.009, 0.009418, 0.012262, 0.013695 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }