{ "ticker": { "uuid": "289895af-9f82-4558-aa4a-db60562bf4cd", "symbol": "SMCX", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Small Cap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.817, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.529, "architecture_energy": 74.521, "architecture_maturity": 34.817, "architecture_confidence": 75.354, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.06, "rotation_up": 70.64, "upward_expansion": 91.08, "deceleration": 43.11, "rotation_down": 16.3, "downward_expansion": 15.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 391.266659, 388.224543, 384.871666, 380.436236 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 399.049988, "trend_reference": 376.385, "distance_from_trend": 0.060218, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 324.570512, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229471, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.193352, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065981, "excess_performance": -0.104911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060218, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032441, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024671, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061934, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003957, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065981, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.698367, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 444, "relative_activity": 0.670492, "balance": 2.698367, "dry_up": 0.696164, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020173, "annualized_volatility": 0.156314, "from_high_reference": -0.002749, "from_low_reference": 0.197449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 376.385, "fair_value_reference": 324.570512, "structural_low": 333.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.002164, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.006735, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.080357, "worst_return": -0.060164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006022, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.039153, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.069584, "worst_return": -0.077901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.056174, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041297, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.119712, "worst_return": -0.018381, "sufficient": true }, 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-6.990399, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.693209, "energy": 34.80661, "activity_lines": [ 384.320005, 384.165459, 380.137622, 377.02226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 387.149994, "volume": 261, "typical_volume": 644.4, "trend": 374.475, "fair_value": 323.069871, "relative_strength": -6.085385, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.931143, "energy": 49.076597, "activity_lines": [ 385.430001, 384.798184, 381.36905, 377.907743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 390.049988, "volume": 811, "typical_volume": 655.25, "trend": 375.433333, "fair_value": 323.79423, "relative_strength": -5.802367, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.678409, "energy": 47.509288, "activity_lines": [ 387.243329, 385.722727, 382.775477, 378.912581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 399.049988, "volume": 444, "typical_volume": 662.2, "trend": 376.385, "fair_value": 324.570512, "relative_strength": -6.193352, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.529016, "energy": 74.521464, "activity_lines": [ 391.266659, 388.224543, 384.871666, 380.436236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }