{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28a59df7-5b3e-4ca0-a2ec-f2bb8671a027", "symbol": "YRD", "name": "Yirendai Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.689, "architecture_energy": 53.73, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.637, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.67, "rotation_up": 29.12, "upward_expansion": 9.67, "deceleration": 60.23, "rotation_down": 46.55, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.202667, 1.218364, 1.375238, 1.685806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.26, "trend_reference": 2.229667, "distance_from_trend": -0.434893, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.165363, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.697505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -68.495272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.670157, "excess_performance": -0.795782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.434893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326724, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.697505, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.684953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.670157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.116385, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 316574, "relative_activity": 0.089304, "balance": 6.116385, "dry_up": 0.088501, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216398, "annualized_volatility": 1.105192, "from_high_reference": -0.814433, "from_low_reference": 0.536585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.229667, "fair_value_reference": 4.165363, "structural_low": 0.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.067599, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.078411, "regime_survival": 0.931034, "best_return": 0.297029, "worst_return": -0.495751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.178377, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.179666, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.440368, "worst_return": -0.582245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.310679, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.336499, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.009176, "worst_return": -0.603636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.258, 1.31, 1.586429, 2.012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.25, "volume": 448289, "typical_volume": 3594328.6, "trend": 2.508333, "fair_value": 4.183679, "relative_strength": -69.980472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.417168, "energy": 61.868295, "activity_lines": [ 1.265333, 1.275636, 1.519762, 1.92428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.18, "volume": 301981, "typical_volume": 3601130.65, "trend": 2.414333, "fair_value": 4.176744, "relative_strength": -70.700764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.233213, "energy": 56.794111, "activity_lines": [ 1.244667, 1.242182, 1.459048, 1.838581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.11, "volume": 188075, "typical_volume": 3603313.5, "trend": 2.323667, "fair_value": 4.17011, "relative_strength": -72.004706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.398746, "energy": 61.902802, "activity_lines": [ 1.198667, 1.212182, 1.404238, 1.75443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.26, "volume": 316574, "typical_volume": 3544915.85, "trend": 2.229667, "fair_value": 4.165363, "relative_strength": -68.495272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.689171, "energy": 53.729581, "activity_lines": [ 1.202667, 1.218364, 1.375238, 1.685806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }