{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28b3129f-5586-448d-97b0-9032deef677c", "symbol": "SUUS", "name": "iShares MSCI USA SRI UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.819, "architecture_energy": 39.901, "architecture_maturity": 65.881, "architecture_confidence": 91.341, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.91, "rotation_up": 35.26, "upward_expansion": 62.41, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 23.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 1519.916667, 1526.9, 1506.859524, 1471.89086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1553.5, "trend_reference": 1430.458333, "distance_from_trend": 0.086016, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1242.644231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250157, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.836787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150954, "excess_performance": 0.099719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086016, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04816, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250157, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03477, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038368, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150954, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.998026, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158929, "relative_activity": 1.002331, "balance": 2.998026, "dry_up": 0.761086, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022087, "annualized_volatility": 0.126489, "from_high_reference": -0.007665, "from_low_reference": 0.241092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1430.458333, "fair_value_reference": 1242.644231, "structural_low": 1277.381958, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006381, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.015378, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.114522, "worst_return": -0.090158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.021231, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.000433, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.104198, "worst_return": -0.160869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.084405, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.037193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129008, "worst_return": -0.036325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060709, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.026853, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.173903, "worst_return": 0.04551, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065999, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029406, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020023, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075388, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", 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"activity_lines": [ 1533.566667, 1529.827273, 1487.620238, 1452.904301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1507.0, "volume": 149861, "typical_volume": 163568.8, "trend": 1419.016667, "fair_value": 1236.570513, "relative_strength": 2.322545, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.76501, "energy": 52.994514, "activity_lines": [ 1521.983333, 1527.318182, 1493.772619, 1458.953763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1490.5, "volume": 110222, "typical_volume": 162522.5, "trend": 1424.458333, "fair_value": 1239.384615, "relative_strength": -0.011642, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.42014, "energy": 34.255211, "activity_lines": [ 1508.5, 1521.409091, 1497.694048, 1463.565591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1553.5, "volume": 158929, "typical_volume": 158559.35, "trend": 1430.458333, "fair_value": 1242.644231, "relative_strength": 3.836787, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.819168, "energy": 39.900703, "activity_lines": [ 1519.916667, 1526.9, 1506.859524, 1471.89086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }