{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28b55959-7824-4112-8f1a-6fb730d967b6", "symbol": "AGQ", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRA SILVER", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.245, "architecture_energy": 55.446, "architecture_maturity": 59.949, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 26.08, "upward_expansion": 9.13, "deceleration": 55.63, "rotation_down": 56.87, "downward_expansion": 84.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.259333, 70.095818, 85.08619, 97.902667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 76.86, "trend_reference": 122.226333, "distance_from_trend": -0.371167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.284359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254154, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.647689, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.437376, "excess_performance": -0.563001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.371167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132373, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254154, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.098488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.386477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.566389, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.437376, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.220909, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11654659, "relative_activity": 0.762066, "balance": 0.220909, "dry_up": 0.687758, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230477, "annualized_volatility": 0.994403, "from_high_reference": -0.821865, "from_low_reference": 0.54727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.226333, "fair_value_reference": 61.284359, "structural_low": 57.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.04129, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.002176, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.210511, "worst_return": -0.410593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043904, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.01989, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.316742, "worst_return": -0.195741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.131017, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032432, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.590865, "worst_return": -0.386587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 64.73, "volume": 9438937, "typical_volume": 16723546.95, "trend": 129.484333, "fair_value": 60.733077, "relative_strength": -45.797216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.513025, "energy": 75.317386, "activity_lines": [ 65.539333, 73.761636, 90.644143, 105.314817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.93, "volume": 10076757, "typical_volume": 16272902.1, "trend": 126.194, "fair_value": 60.96, "relative_strength": -47.082834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.067577, "energy": 66.974791, "activity_lines": [ 64.627333, 70.290727, 87.072762, 101.085505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.86, "volume": 11654659, "typical_volume": 15293510.45, "trend": 122.226333, "fair_value": 61.284359, "relative_strength": -38.647689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.245121, "energy": 55.446099, "activity_lines": [ 68.259333, 70.095818, 85.08619, 97.902667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }