{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28ba040a-ce47-4b09-a537-2be87aab3abd", "symbol": "SGU", "name": "Star Gas Partners LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.882, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.23, "architecture_energy": 31.009, "architecture_maturity": 27.889, "architecture_confidence": 74.494, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.66, "rotation_up": 52.71, "upward_expansion": 79.13, "deceleration": 50.96, "rotation_down": 20.85, "downward_expansion": 5.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.766534, 12.731187, 12.67993, 12.628395 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.87, "trend_reference": 12.573044, "distance_from_trend": 0.023618, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.019991, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.77104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007546, "excess_performance": -0.133171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023618, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031758, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167878, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151103, "relative_activity": 1.381871, "balance": 0.457342, "dry_up": 1.131912, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036895, "annualized_volatility": 0.136502, "from_high_reference": -0.04878, "from_low_reference": 0.184401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.573044, "fair_value_reference": 11.019991, "structural_low": 12.014715, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.000391, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005864, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.08291, "worst_return": -0.129299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014859, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011411, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.098811, "worst_return": -0.138352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.050405, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.073253, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.161153, "worst_return": -0.255812, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -1.128154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.117376, "energy": 29.190778, "activity_lines": [ 12.737437, 12.684602, 12.623344, 12.579955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.849387, "volume": 139735, "typical_volume": 113652.8, "trend": 12.506722, "fair_value": 10.984745, "relative_strength": -0.799207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.759498, "energy": 32.659237, "activity_lines": [ 12.792279, 12.718776, 12.65199, 12.605023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.54, "volume": 143469, "typical_volume": 110712.2, "trend": 12.541015, "fair_value": 11.001718, "relative_strength": -4.070807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.785602, "energy": 20.858763, "activity_lines": [ 12.718032, 12.694527, 12.651033, 12.60717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.87, "volume": 151103, "typical_volume": 109346.65, "trend": 12.573044, "fair_value": 11.019991, "relative_strength": -4.77104, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.230347, "energy": 31.008849, "activity_lines": [ 12.766534, 12.731187, 12.67993, 12.628395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }