{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28ba6f07-0467-49ae-b214-25fb523521f2", "symbol": "AJEUAS", "name": "UBS MSCI AC Asia ex Japan SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.184, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.11, "architecture_energy": 24.808, "architecture_maturity": 64.757, "architecture_confidence": 87.036, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.37, "rotation_up": 20.81, "upward_expansion": 54.55, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 36.42, "downward_expansion": 18.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 273.693331, 278.146363, 278.079764, 271.426668 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 275.299988, "trend_reference": 262.951668, "distance_from_trend": 0.04696, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 193.597343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.422024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.564957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.127816, "excess_performance": 0.044933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04696, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075709, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.422024, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122552, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01565, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127816, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.444288, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5386, "relative_activity": 0.876835, "balance": 1.444288, "dry_up": 1.587126, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041451, "annualized_volatility": 0.259049, "from_high_reference": -0.081261, "from_low_reference": 0.351829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 262.951668, "fair_value_reference": 193.597343, "structural_low": 224.649994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.019348, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005506, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142078, "worst_return": -0.051977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048273, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.018502, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.235705, "worst_return": -0.013289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.112625, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.045168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25111, "worst_return": -0.007237, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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276.251908, 268.096347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 269.25, "volume": 14165, "typical_volume": 9855.5, "trend": 258.648335, "fair_value": 191.316638, "relative_strength": 1.313531, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.842896, "energy": 30.32701, "activity_lines": [ 280.923336, 283.581821, 276.564527, 268.876992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 273.100006, "volume": 469, "typical_volume": 8733.5, "trend": 260.278336, "fair_value": 192.053561, "relative_strength": 2.675136, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.792054, "energy": 24.342287, "activity_lines": [ 276.993337, 281.646367, 277.198575, 269.809358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 271.75, "volume": 18976, "typical_volume": 6076.3, "trend": 261.703336, "fair_value": 192.797343, "relative_strength": 1.835278, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.6789, "energy": 24.528787, "activity_lines": [ 274.373336, 279.503639, 277.550479, 270.549465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 275.299988, "volume": 5386, "typical_volume": 6142.55, "trend": 262.951668, "fair_value": 193.597343, "relative_strength": 1.564957, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.110125, "energy": 24.808025, "activity_lines": [ 273.693331, 278.146363, 278.079764, 271.426668 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }